Trends In Extreme Weather Events With Socio-Economic Damage Over The Period 1991-2019 In Russia And Its Regions

Abstract

Increased number of extreme weather events is one of the most serious hazards of climate change over the territory of Russia. However, there is a lack of comprehensive analysis of the number of extreme weather events that caused social and economic damage in the country and its regions. This paper analyzes changes in the total number of events with damage (meteorological for the period 1991-2019 and agrometeorological – for 2004-2019), disaggregated by their types and by regions. The Mann-Kendall test is applied to detect statistical significance (0.05 level of significance, normal distribution). The results show an increase in the number of meteorological extreme events with damage for 1990-2019 in Russia from 130 to 257 events per year on average for the 1990s and 2010s, respectively, while the proportion of events with damage in relation to the total number of extreme events decreased over this period. We found statistically significant trends only for a few types of extreme events: hot and cold temperature, strong wind, heavy rain and droughts (increase by 0.9, 9.4, 11.4, 25.9 and 13.3 events/10 years, respectively). Number of heavy rain precipitation events is the only unidirectional stable growth trend. Unusual increasing trend in cold extreme events with damage in Russia can be attributed to the greater damage to the economy and population from cold extremes than hot ones. The regional distribution of trends across the territory of the Russian Federation is heterogeneous. However, significant changes in the number of extreme events of strong winds, heavy rains and soil drought by regions are statistically positive and observed mostly in some southern and central regions of European part and the Western Siberia. The development of adaptation plans to the negative effects of climate change is a first priority for these regions. A system for monitoring economic and non-economic damage from extreme events must be developed in Russia.