Unraveling the spatial dynamics: exploring the urban form characteristics and COVID-19 cases in Yogyakarta city, Indonesia

Abstract

The urban area is a spatial system that significantly impacts residents’ health risks. Despite the fact that urban areas house only 55% of the global population, they account for 95% of COVID-19 cases, highlighting the urgent need to understand the role of the urban environment in disease spread. This research explores the critical impact of urban form characteristics on public health risks, focusing primarily on the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission. The aim of the study study is to elucidate the spatial association between urban form elements such as connectivity, density, and heterogeneity and the incidence of COVID-19 cases, with a specific focus on Yogyakarta. Using global (OLS) and local (GWR) spatial regression models, we analyzed the relationship between these elements and COVID-19 prevalence at the neighborhood level rigorously. Our findings reveal a pronounced spatial correlation, particularly highlighting the significance of connectivity and heterogeneity. These factors explain over 95% of the variance in case numbers, while density shows no substantial link. This study’s originality lies in its hypothesis-driven examination of urban form impact on COVID-19 transmission, providing new insights into the spatial determinants of health risks in urban settings. Practical implications of our research are profound, providing evidencebased guidance for urban planning and disaster preparedness strategies to mitigate future health crises better. The study contributes valuable insights into designing healthier and more sustainable urban environments by providing a nuanced understanding of how the urban form influences the spread of disease.