It’s the robots, stupid? Automation risk, labour market resources and incumbent support in Europe

Abstract

As automation challenges labour markets across Europe, research in political science is pointing towards the socially corrosive link between such technological change and political dissatisfaction. In this paper, I extend this research agenda by looking at the relation between automation risk and incumbent support in 20 European countries between 2012 and 2018. I find strong support for the notion that workers with substantial exposure to automation risk are more likely to reject governments at the ballot box. Importantly, however, these findings indicate that this anti-incumbent voting is less prevalent among theoretically at-risk workers who enjoy some level of protection, in the form of permanent contracts, co-determination rights or higher educational attainment. As such, this paper argues that technological occupation risk should be seen as feeding into broader labour market risks faced by voters.