Using MI-LASSO to study populist radical right voting in times of pandemic

Abstract

As immigration issues waned in salience during the COVID-19 pandemic, populist radical right (PRR) parties repositioned themselves by politicizing various pandemic policies. In light of this changing political landscape, scholars have analyzed what factors are associated with PRR voting. Yet, most studies focus on small sets of covariates that could easily ignore other key determinants. To address this limitation, we use MI-LASSO logistic regression, which is a more inductive data-driven approach that can incorporate a huge number of covariates. Our research analyzes the key determinants of voting for the People’s Party of Canada—a PRR party that rose rapidly during the pandemic. Using the 2021 Canadian Election Study dataset ( N = 14,841), we confirm that PRR voters in the pandemic were both protest and policy-oriented voters. They were protest voters since anti-establishment attitudes consistently correlate with their vote choice. On the other hand, PRR voters’ policy concern was about pandemic policies rather than immigration, as nativist attitudes never emerge as key determinants. Additionally, we uncover that the ideological placement of the mainstream right party and the defense of hate speech are strong correlates, while conventional variables like sociodemographics are not. These findings enrich our understanding of PRR voting during the pandemic.