Pub Date : 2024-04-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241241131
Seth B. Warner, Dominik A. Stecuła
A key grievance of the student labor movement is that across much of academia, and especially in the social sciences and humanities, stipends tied to PhD assistantships fall short of a living wage. In this article, we consider the issue from a pedagogical perspective, expecting that higher pay may lead to stronger program outcomes. We collect and validate data on assistantship stipends in political science from PhDStipends.com, and on tenure-track placements from an analysis of departmental placement pages. Graduate pay is significantly associated with tenure-track placements in the job market cycles spanning 2019–2021, independently of program size, rank, student unionization, location, and institution type and endowment. Across model specifications, a US$5,000 increase in student pay corresponds with 2.7 more placements per 100 enrolled students (or 34% of the median rate) over this period.
{"title":"PhD stipends and program placement success in political science","authors":"Seth B. Warner, Dominik A. Stecuła","doi":"10.1177/20531680241241131","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241241131","url":null,"abstract":"A key grievance of the student labor movement is that across much of academia, and especially in the social sciences and humanities, stipends tied to PhD assistantships fall short of a living wage. In this article, we consider the issue from a pedagogical perspective, expecting that higher pay may lead to stronger program outcomes. We collect and validate data on assistantship stipends in political science from PhDStipends.com, and on tenure-track placements from an analysis of departmental placement pages. Graduate pay is significantly associated with tenure-track placements in the job market cycles spanning 2019–2021, independently of program size, rank, student unionization, location, and institution type and endowment. Across model specifications, a US$5,000 increase in student pay corresponds with 2.7 more placements per 100 enrolled students (or 34% of the median rate) over this period.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"48 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140788704","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241229875
Michael Wiebe
China has sustained double-digit economic growth over three decades. A literature has emerged with one possible explanation: meritocratic promotion, where officials at the same level compete with each other on the basis of relative GDP growth, and the winners are rewarded with promotion up the administrative hierarchy. This tournament competition generates strong incentives for politicians to boost growth. I reanalyze this literature, focusing on prefecture-level leaders. I select three papers that study different research questions, but each reports secondary results on meritocratic promotion of prefecture leaders. Reanalyzing these results, I find that the evidence is not robust to alternative control variables, regression specifications, or outcome variables. Overall, I provide an example of a literature seeming to converge on a finding, but where each piece of evidence is unreliable.
三十年来，中国经济一直保持两位数的增长。有文献提出了一种可能的解释：任人唯贤的晋升方式，即同一级别的官员根据相对 GDP 增长率相互竞争，获胜者可获得行政级别的晋升。这种锦标赛式的竞争为政治家促进经济增长提供了强有力的激励。我重新分析了这些文献，重点关注县级领导。我选择了三篇研究不同问题的论文，但每篇论文都报告了县级领导任人唯贤晋升的次要结果。在对这些结果进行重新分析后，我发现这些证据对其他控制变量、回归规格或结果变量并不稳健。总之，我提供了一个文献似乎趋于一致，但每项证据都不可靠的例子。
{"title":"Replicating the literature on prefecture-level meritocratic promotion in China","authors":"Michael Wiebe","doi":"10.1177/20531680241229875","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241229875","url":null,"abstract":"China has sustained double-digit economic growth over three decades. A literature has emerged with one possible explanation: meritocratic promotion, where officials at the same level compete with each other on the basis of relative GDP growth, and the winners are rewarded with promotion up the administrative hierarchy. This tournament competition generates strong incentives for politicians to boost growth. I reanalyze this literature, focusing on prefecture-level leaders. I select three papers that study different research questions, but each reports secondary results on meritocratic promotion of prefecture leaders. Reanalyzing these results, I find that the evidence is not robust to alternative control variables, regression specifications, or outcome variables. Overall, I provide an example of a literature seeming to converge on a finding, but where each piece of evidence is unreliable.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"10 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140517791","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241227588
Max Constantine Corkan Plithides
Does individual variation in affective empathetic capacity systemically condition a person's willingness to support pre-emptive military action? In this note, I theorize that individuals who are more prone to feeling affective empathy are less likely to support conflict escalation. To evidence this theory, I conduct a survey asking individuals about their willingness to support a military attack against a non-specific rogue state that is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. The results demonstrate that the probability of an individual supporting such a strike is strongly conditioned on their affective empathetic capacity. This finding holds regardless of model specification and controlling for rational beliefs about material outcomes. Affective empathy may, therefore, have a powerful palliating effect upon the processes that contribute to conflict escalation.
{"title":"Does affective empathy capacity condition individual variation in support for military escalation? Evidence from a survey vignette","authors":"Max Constantine Corkan Plithides","doi":"10.1177/20531680241227588","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241227588","url":null,"abstract":"Does individual variation in affective empathetic capacity systemically condition a person's willingness to support pre-emptive military action? In this note, I theorize that individuals who are more prone to feeling affective empathy are less likely to support conflict escalation. To evidence this theory, I conduct a survey asking individuals about their willingness to support a military attack against a non-specific rogue state that is on the verge of acquiring nuclear weapons. The results demonstrate that the probability of an individual supporting such a strike is strongly conditioned on their affective empathetic capacity. This finding holds regardless of model specification and controlling for rational beliefs about material outcomes. Affective empathy may, therefore, have a powerful palliating effect upon the processes that contribute to conflict escalation.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"91 25","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139538651","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680231222988
Yining Sun, Ethan Kapstein, Jake Shapiro
Recent years have seen growing concerns expressed by political leaders throughout the west about rising Chinese “influence” around the world. Yet, measuring political influence remains a challenge to social science. In this paper, we seek to advance our understanding of influence by comparing the expressed attitudes towards China of politicians within three Southeast Asian states (the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia) whose electoral districts have received Chinese Belt and Road investments versus those who have not. Specifically, we adopt the difference-in-difference design, interacting China-related foreign policy “shocks” with sentiment analysis based on Twitter and Facebook posts. We find little support for the assertion that Chinese investments are leading to increased political influence in these countries, at least in terms of influencing the sentiments expressed by local politicians.
{"title":"Chinese investment and elite sentiment in Southeast Asia: An event study of influence along the belt and road","authors":"Yining Sun, Ethan Kapstein, Jake Shapiro","doi":"10.1177/20531680231222988","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680231222988","url":null,"abstract":"Recent years have seen growing concerns expressed by political leaders throughout the west about rising Chinese “influence” around the world. Yet, measuring political influence remains a challenge to social science. In this paper, we seek to advance our understanding of influence by comparing the expressed attitudes towards China of politicians within three Southeast Asian states (the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia) whose electoral districts have received Chinese Belt and Road investments versus those who have not. Specifically, we adopt the difference-in-difference design, interacting China-related foreign policy “shocks” with sentiment analysis based on Twitter and Facebook posts. We find little support for the assertion that Chinese investments are leading to increased political influence in these countries, at least in terms of influencing the sentiments expressed by local politicians.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"28 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140516202","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241233793
Sebastian Ramirez-Ruiz
In October 2016, the Colombian electorate narrowly rejected in a plebiscite the final agreement to end the conflict with the longest-running armed insurgency in the Western Hemisphere, the FARC. The plebiscite’s result provides a unique opportunity to assess dynamics in civil conflict termination preferences. I exploit the unexpected victory of the No vote, observed during the AmericasBarometer fieldwork, to estimate the effect of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict generated by the outcome of the plebiscite. The unexpected defeat of the peace plebiscite did not measurably change the expressed support for the recently rejected agreement. However, it increased the public support for a negotiated rather than military settlement to the conflict, as well as respondents’ willingness to give concessions to FARC members. These findings inform the broader literature on civilian preferences toward civil conflict termination and compromise.
{"title":"The unexpected results of the peace referendum changed conflict termination preferences in Colombia","authors":"Sebastian Ramirez-Ruiz","doi":"10.1177/20531680241233793","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241233793","url":null,"abstract":"In October 2016, the Colombian electorate narrowly rejected in a plebiscite the final agreement to end the conflict with the longest-running armed insurgency in the Western Hemisphere, the FARC. The plebiscite’s result provides a unique opportunity to assess dynamics in civil conflict termination preferences. I exploit the unexpected victory of the No vote, observed during the AmericasBarometer fieldwork, to estimate the effect of the uncertainty about the trajectory of the conflict generated by the outcome of the plebiscite. The unexpected defeat of the peace plebiscite did not measurably change the expressed support for the recently rejected agreement. However, it increased the public support for a negotiated rather than military settlement to the conflict, as well as respondents’ willingness to give concessions to FARC members. These findings inform the broader literature on civilian preferences toward civil conflict termination and compromise.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"39 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140520749","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241237311
Jin Woo Kim, Ruijun Liu
Communicating the “97%’’ scientific consensus has been the centerpiece of the effort to persuade climate skeptics. Still, this strategy may not work well for those who mistrust climate scientists, to begin with. We examine how the American public—Republicans in particular—respond when provided with a relatively detailed causal explanation summarizing why scientists have concluded that human activities are responsible for climate change. Based on a preregistered survey experiment ( N = 3007), we assessed the effectiveness of detailed causal evidence versus traditional consensus messaging. We found that both treatments had noticeable effects on belief in human-caused climate change, with the causal evidence being slightly more effective, though we did not observe equivalent patterns for changes in attitudes toward climate policies. We conclude that conveying scientific information serves more as a remedy than a cure, reducing but not eliminating misperceptions about climate change and opposition to climate policies.
{"title":"Persuading climate skeptics with facts: Effects of causal evidence vs. consensus messaging","authors":"Jin Woo Kim, Ruijun Liu","doi":"10.1177/20531680241237311","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241237311","url":null,"abstract":"Communicating the “97%’’ scientific consensus has been the centerpiece of the effort to persuade climate skeptics. Still, this strategy may not work well for those who mistrust climate scientists, to begin with. We examine how the American public—Republicans in particular—respond when provided with a relatively detailed causal explanation summarizing why scientists have concluded that human activities are responsible for climate change. Based on a preregistered survey experiment ( N = 3007), we assessed the effectiveness of detailed causal evidence versus traditional consensus messaging. We found that both treatments had noticeable effects on belief in human-caused climate change, with the causal evidence being slightly more effective, though we did not observe equivalent patterns for changes in attitudes toward climate policies. We conclude that conveying scientific information serves more as a remedy than a cure, reducing but not eliminating misperceptions about climate change and opposition to climate policies.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"118 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140525666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680231216183
Bryce J. Dietrich, Hyein Ko, Payel Sen
Despite their ubiquity, few have used traffic camera networks for social science research. Using 1,312,977 images collected from 768 London-based cameras leading up to the 2015 UK general election, this study not only demonstrates how traffic camera data can be used to effectively measure same-day turnout, but we also provide ways such data can be used to assess political behavior more broadly. Such automated enumeration is especially important in countries where official results are only returned for the current election, making it difficult for those interested in assessing turnout at lower levels of aggregation, even when those elections are next on the calendar. Although we are not the first to suggest the value of images-as-data, this study hopes to underline the importance of video-as-data, while simultaneously offering an important foundation for future research.
{"title":"Stand up and be counted: Using traffic cameras to assess voting behavior in real time","authors":"Bryce J. Dietrich, Hyein Ko, Payel Sen","doi":"10.1177/20531680231216183","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680231216183","url":null,"abstract":"Despite their ubiquity, few have used traffic camera networks for social science research. Using 1,312,977 images collected from 768 London-based cameras leading up to the 2015 UK general election, this study not only demonstrates how traffic camera data can be used to effectively measure same-day turnout, but we also provide ways such data can be used to assess political behavior more broadly. Such automated enumeration is especially important in countries where official results are only returned for the current election, making it difficult for those interested in assessing turnout at lower levels of aggregation, even when those elections are next on the calendar. Although we are not the first to suggest the value of images-as-data, this study hopes to underline the importance of video-as-data, while simultaneously offering an important foundation for future research.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"170 5-6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140516619","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241229930
Andreu Arenas
All over the world, a very large number of elections take place concurrently with other elections for representatives in different government tiers. A crucial question for understanding electoral outcomes in those elections is the existence of electoral spillovers or coattail effects. Causal identification of coattail effects is challenging because popularity shocks typically affect parties in both concurrent elections. This paper exploits a quasi-experiment—the ban of a party in only one of the concurrent elections—to estimate coattail effects. The results show that a 1 pp decline in electoral support for a party in a given election reduces its support in the concurrent election by 0.25 pp. This comes along with a decline in turnout of the same size in both elections.
{"title":"Coattail effects and turnout: Evidence from a quasi-experiment","authors":"Andreu Arenas","doi":"10.1177/20531680241229930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241229930","url":null,"abstract":"All over the world, a very large number of elections take place concurrently with other elections for representatives in different government tiers. A crucial question for understanding electoral outcomes in those elections is the existence of electoral spillovers or coattail effects. Causal identification of coattail effects is challenging because popularity shocks typically affect parties in both concurrent elections. This paper exploits a quasi-experiment—the ban of a party in only one of the concurrent elections—to estimate coattail effects. The results show that a 1 pp decline in electoral support for a party in a given election reduces its support in the concurrent election by 0.25 pp. This comes along with a decline in turnout of the same size in both elections.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"26 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140516212","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241233439
Abel Brodeur, Kevin Esterling, Jörg Ankel-Peters, Natália S. Bueno, Scott Desposato, Anna Dreber, Federica Genovese, Donald P. Green, Matthew Hepplewhite, Fernando Hoces de la Guardia, M. Johannesson, Andreas Kotsadam, Edward Miguel, Y. R. Velez, Lauren Young
This article reviews and summarizes current reproduction and replication practices in political science. We first provide definitions for reproducibility and replicability. We then review data availability policies for 28 leading political science journals and present the results from a survey of editors about their willingness to publish comments and replications. We discuss new initiatives that seek to promote and generate high-quality reproductions and replications. Finally, we make the case for standards and practices that may help increase data availability, reproducibility, and replicability in political science.
{"title":"Promoting Reproducibility and Replicability in Political Science","authors":"Abel Brodeur, Kevin Esterling, Jörg Ankel-Peters, Natália S. Bueno, Scott Desposato, Anna Dreber, Federica Genovese, Donald P. Green, Matthew Hepplewhite, Fernando Hoces de la Guardia, M. Johannesson, Andreas Kotsadam, Edward Miguel, Y. R. Velez, Lauren Young","doi":"10.1177/20531680241233439","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241233439","url":null,"abstract":"This article reviews and summarizes current reproduction and replication practices in political science. We first provide definitions for reproducibility and replicability. We then review data availability policies for 28 leading political science journals and present the results from a survey of editors about their willingness to publish comments and replications. We discuss new initiatives that seek to promote and generate high-quality reproductions and replications. Finally, we make the case for standards and practices that may help increase data availability, reproducibility, and replicability in political science.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"45 3-4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140516809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.1177/20531680241226511
Jeong Hyun Kim, Yesola Kweon
Why are there so few working-class women in politics? While white-collar representatives dominate legislatures in general, the deficit of working-class members is particularly pronounced among female politicians. To answer this question, this study examines the influence of class and gender in voter evaluation. Through the cross-country comparison of conjoint experiments in the U.S. and the U.K., we find that working-class backgrounds disadvantage women candidates in a way that they do not disadvantage their male counterparts. Voters tend to prefer white-collar candidates to working-class politicians. Such a negative effect of working-class backgrounds is particularly evident for female candidates because the negative traits associated with the lower economic class, such as incompetence and lack of ambition, exacerbate voters' questions about female candidates’ qualifications for political leadership. By contrast, for male candidates, whose qualifications are rarely questioned based on their gender, candidates’ working-class background has a less negative impact.
{"title":"Double penalty? How candidate class and gender influence voter evaluations","authors":"Jeong Hyun Kim, Yesola Kweon","doi":"10.1177/20531680241226511","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/20531680241226511","url":null,"abstract":"Why are there so few working-class women in politics? While white-collar representatives dominate legislatures in general, the deficit of working-class members is particularly pronounced among female politicians. To answer this question, this study examines the influence of class and gender in voter evaluation. Through the cross-country comparison of conjoint experiments in the U.S. and the U.K., we find that working-class backgrounds disadvantage women candidates in a way that they do not disadvantage their male counterparts. Voters tend to prefer white-collar candidates to working-class politicians. Such a negative effect of working-class backgrounds is particularly evident for female candidates because the negative traits associated with the lower economic class, such as incompetence and lack of ambition, exacerbate voters' questions about female candidates’ qualifications for political leadership. By contrast, for male candidates, whose qualifications are rarely questioned based on their gender, candidates’ working-class background has a less negative impact.","PeriodicalId":125693,"journal":{"name":"Research & Politics","volume":"15 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140516304","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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