Climate Disasters and Exchange Rates: Are Beliefs Keeping up with Climate Change?

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Imf Economic Review Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI:10.1057/s41308-023-00231-w

Galina Hale

引用次数: 0

Abstract

There is clear scientific evidence of the shift in the probability distribution of climate-related disasters in recent decades. Is this shift reflected in the behavior of forward-looking measures of economic activity such as real exchange rates? I evaluate the role of different belief formation assumptions on the ability of the model to predict the response of real exchange rates to climate-related disasters. I consider Bayesian and backward-looking belief updates as well as static beliefs with no update or a one-time update. To do so, I construct a version of the Farhi-Gabaix (2015) framework augmented with explicit belief formation. I use two approaches to model calibration and simulate the model for 47 countries for 1964–2019 using actual data for climate-related disasters. I find that in general differences in belief formation do not have much effect on the model fit because the productivity loss component dominates the predicted response. Specifically, I find that even in recent years there is no evidence of Bayesian beliefs being a better fit for the data.

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气候灾害与汇率：信念是否跟得上气候变化？

有明确的科学证据表明，近几十年来与气候有关的灾害的概率分布发生了变化。这种变化是否反映在实际汇率等经济活动前瞻性指标的行为中？我评估了不同信念形成假设对模型预测实际汇率对气候相关灾害反应能力的作用。我考虑了贝叶斯和后向信念更新以及无更新或一次性更新的静态信念。为此，我构建了 Farhi-Gabaix（2015）框架的一个版本，并增加了明确的信念形成。我使用两种方法对模型进行校准，并利用气候相关灾害的实际数据对 1964-2019 年 47 个国家的模型进行模拟。我发现，一般来说，信念形成的差异对模型拟合的影响不大，因为生产力损失部分在预测响应中占主导地位。具体而言，我发现即使在最近几年，也没有证据表明贝叶斯信念更适合数据。

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来源期刊

Imf Economic Review Multiple-

CiteScore

5.50

自引率

4.70%

发文量

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