Towards Climate Neutrality: Will Russian Forest Stand Against Energy?

Abstract

The prospects for reducing the carbon intensity of the Russian economy and the possibility of achieving climate neutrality of the country’s national economy by 2060 are examined. Based on a historical-extrapolation approach to the study of the development of various socio-technical systems and by comparing the dynamics of carbon indicators of the economies of Russia and the leading countries of the world, it is shown that full compensation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions when absorbed by the biosphere (primarily forests) is today rather only theoretically possible. The condition for this is the implementation of extremely ambitious large-scale reform programs in all sectors of the Russian economy, from energy to forestry. Thus, in an optimistic scenario, the decline rate of specific indicators of greenhouse gas emissions per capita should have the maximum values achieved in the world over the last 50 years, i.e. 1%/year. Forest management must include full compensation for increasing deforestation and a 50% reduction in forest losses from fires, which are currently the second (after energy) source of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere. The most likely scenario is one in which the decline rate of specific greenhouse gas emissions per capita is 0.5%/year and a moderate increase in the absorption capacity of forests is ensured, mainly due to the implementation of forest climate projects and a reduction in wildfire emissions. If the latter scenario is implemented, net greenhouse gas emissions could amount to approximately 700 Mt CO₂ (equiv.) by 2060, which will require the nation’s carbon capture and storage industry on an unprecedented scale to achieve climate neutrality.