Predicting the Impact of Land Use Changes on Thermal Environment in Lahore, Pakistan: Implications for Urban Planning

Abstract

Land use changes significantly threaten urban areas, especially in developing countries such as Pakistan, impacting the thermal environment and comfort of human life. The ongoing transformations in cities such as Lahore, the second largest and rapidly expanding urban center in Pakistan, are alarming due to the removal of green cover and the disruption of ecological structures. In response to these concerns, this study was conducted to assess and predict the implications of observed land use changes in Lahore. The analysis employed three Landsat images from 1990, 2005, and 2020, using ArcGIS and Idrisi Selva software. The results show that the built-up area increased almost 100% (16.44% to 32.48%) during the last three decades. Consequently, a substantial shift from low to medium and medium to high degrees of LST was observed. The projections indicate a further 50% expansion of the built-up area, encroaching upon green cover until 2050, shifting more areas under a higher LST spectrum. So, the study concludes that Lahore is facing imminent threats from rapid land use changes caused by higher land surface temperature in the study area, necessitating prompt attention and decisive action. The study area is at risk of losing its conducive environment and the desirable uniformity of the thermal environment. Therefore, it is recommended that green cover be strategically enhanced to offset the rise in built-up areas and ensure a sustainable thermal environment.