RFM user value tags and XGBoost algorithm for analyzing electricity customer demand data

Abstract

With the increasing demand for electricity, predicting user electricity demand has become an essential task. The electricity demand characteristics of users in the electricity market are different, so it is necessary to classify and predict users. Aiming at the above problems, a classified forecasting model of electricity demand based on recent consumption, frequency, monetary (RFM), K-means, XGBoost and dynamic time warping (DTW) algorithm is proposed. The experiment showcases that among the electricity consumption of commercial users, the first type of load has the lowest proportion in autumn, at around 18.6 %; The second type of load has the highest proportion in autumn, about 81.3 %; Accurate classification has been made for the consuming quantity of electricity of commercial users. The average error in the forecasting results of the RFM-KM-XGboost model and the actual value of commercial electricity demand is about 0.07 kW; The average errors between the forecasting results of SVM model and RF model and the true values are about 0.2 kW and 0.14 kW, respectively; It indicates that the forecasting error of the RFM-KM-XGBoost model is smaller. The above results indicate that the RFM-KM-XGBoost model can extract users' electricity demand characteristics by classifying user types and load types, and make more accurate predictions of electricity demand for different types of users.