Are we there yet? Saturation analysis as a foundation for confidence in system dynamics modeling, applied to a conceptualization process using qualitative data

Abstract

Saturation is a useful concept for system dynamics, yet it has not been widely explored or integrated into the modeling process. In this article, we describe saturation as a metaphor describing the point at which a conceptual representation of a system meets the study purpose and no longer requires modification. When saturation is reached, additional data about the problem would not offer added information, thus indicating that additional data gathering and analysis would likely be redundant. We discuss two visualization techniques, “saturation curves” and “shared understanding diagrams,” for assessing saturation when conceptualizing with causal loop diagrams and show their application in a case example. Using saturation analysis during a system dynamics research process has many advantages, including: (i) identifying model structures potentially needing revisions, (ii) observing the extent to which evidence supports the current conceptualization, (iii) reflecting extensively, (iv) documenting important modeling decisions, and (v) potentially improving the problem statement. © 2024 The Author(s). System Dynamics Review published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of System Dynamics Society.