Urban transformation in Lahore: three decades of land cover changes, green space decline, and sustainable development challenges

Abstract

Pakistan has experienced significant urbanization, characterized by rapid urban population growth and unplanned urban expansion, making it the most urbanized country in South Asia. This study focuses on Lahore, the secondlargest megacity of Pakistan, and evaluates land cover changes over the last three decades (1990-2020). It also analyzes the relationship between urban green landscapes and unregulated urban expansion. The study reveals significant changes in the ecology of Lahore’s urban landscape using Landsat imagery, including Landsat 5 TM, Landsat 8 OLI, and a 30m spatial resolution, along with population data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. In particular, the study reveals a decline in urban green spaces and a significant expansion of urban built-up areas in Lahore. The annual urban area expansion rates were 24.2 km2 (1990- 2000), 12.1 km2 (2000-2010), and 26.4 km2 (2010-2020), while vegetation cover decreased 33.45 km2 (1990-2000), 20 km2 (2000-2010) in the first two decades but slightly increased from 2010 to 2020 at an annual rate of 14.17 km2. As a result, there is a serious concern about the rapid decline of green space in Lahore. It is recommended that the administrative authorities follow the World Health Organization’s guidelines regarding the need for green spaces. This study contributes to achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 11th, indicator 11.3.1, and provides guidelines for conserving natural, social, and economic resources in the face of rapid urbanization.