Organizing Foresight Tools

Abstract

Futures and foresight tools support strategy work by structuring inquiry into- and generating information about the user’s uncertain operating environment. Each tool accomplishes this differently, making their selection non-trivial. Scholars have recommended that tools be organized for selection based on criteria such as the nature of inquiry they generate, the resources needed for their implementation, their input or data transformation affordances, the content they produce, or their temporal directionality. In practice, foresight tools are selected by actors under constrained circumstances. With the aim to improve the impact of foresight investments, a selection schema is developed that shortlists tools by how each generates relevant knowledge for solving the user’s problem across a landscape (locus and level) of uncertainty. The paper reports on initial field tests, the resulting refinements to the schema, and proposes a diagnostic protocol for its operationalization. The paper concludes by offering suggestions for leveraging the schema in firms, consulting, and teaching.