Predicting the technological impact of papers: Exploring optimal models and most important features

Abstract

Patent citations received by a paper are considered one of the most appropriate indicators for quantifying the technological impact of scientific research. In light of the large number of published research outcomes, technology developers need an effective method to identify academic work with potential technological impact and so as to provide scientific theories for the generation of relevant technologies. Focusing on the technical field of artificial intelligence (AI), this study constructs a set of 47 features from seven dimensions and uses feature selection and machine learning models to accurately predict how research papers impact AI technology. The results show that the random forest model is superior to the other tested models in predicting AI patent citations of papers, with citation-related features (such as ‘PaperCitations’ and ‘Background’) playing a vital role in the prediction.