A global analysis of ice phenology for 3702 lakes and 1028 reservoirs across the Northern Hemisphere using Sentinel-2 imagery

Abstract

As existing global lake ice studies have predominantly focused on medium to large lakes, and reservoir ice studies have been limited to regional scales, very few studies of ice phenology have combined both lakes and reservoirs of different sizes. This study aims to characterize the freeze-up and break-up dates of 3702 lakes and 1028 reservoirs from 1 to 31,000 km² across the Northern Hemisphere, and to analyze spatial patterns and relationships between ice phenological dates and driving factors. The freeze-up and break-up dates of these water bodies were retrieved from Sentinel-2 imagery using an ice detection algorithm through the Google Earth Engine platform from 2019 to 2023. The algorithm was verified by comparing phenology dates with an independent database based on observations from passive microwave sensors, with a mean absolute error of 18 days for both freeze-up and break-up dates. This newly established ice phenology database along with various geographic, morphometric, and climatic characteristics of the water bodies, was used to develop a random forest model for predicting ice phenology dates. While the predictive model performance is at a fair level (mean absolute error of 12 days for both freeze-up and break-up), challenges were encountered in certain high-elevation areas where cloudy conditions as well as black ice resulted in delayed freeze-up dates. Among the variables included in the random forest model, latitude and accumulation of freezing degree days were identified as the main drivers of ice phenology dates. Despite the challenges of applying a single, straightforward method on a global scale, this study has allowed the creation of a vast and comprehensive database of lake and reservoir freeze-up and break-up dates that can be used by the community to further analyze ice patterns.