A 70-year record reveals the poleward shift of tropical cyclone tracks in the east China coastal ocean is twice that of landward shift

Abstract

Analyzing the spatial-temporal changes in tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the east China coastal ocean (ECCO) to quantify the magnitude of poleward and landward migration of TCs is of significant importance for coastal disaster mitigation and planning due to its susceptibility to the impacts of TCs. In this study, the TCs that affected the ECCO from 1949 to 2022 are classified into three typical types of tracks using the k-means clustering method, mass moments, and track interpolation based on TC location, shape, and intensity information. Type 1 is a northwestward track, Type 2 is a northwest to northeast-turning track, and Type 3 is a northwest to northeast-turning offshore track. Type 1 tracks mainly make landfall in southern China, while Type 2 predominantly makes landfall in eastern China. Moreover, the proportion of Type 1 decreases while their landfall percentage increases over time, and the proportion of Type 2 tracks is increasing. The probability of TC effects on the eastern and northern parts of the ECCO is increasing, and the boundary where the TC center reaches after landfall is shifting landward. During the period from 1994 to 2022, there has been a significant migration in TC tracks, with the mean centroid of the TCs affecting the ECCO shifting westward by 0.66° in longitude and northward by 1.26° in latitude, which means the magnitude of the poleward shift is about twice that of the landward shift. This migration appears to have been pre-conditioned by a combined influence of a weakening westward steering flow, reduced vertical wind shear, and warmer sea surface temperature Our findings provide valuable insights into the longitudinal and latitudinal migration of TC tracks and have important implications for disaster prevention, mitigation planning, and the adjustment of crucial coastal protection zones in the ECCO and similar regions around the globe.