A Mathematical Model for Predicting the Ultra-Early-Age Strength of Concrete

Abstract

To accurately quantify the time-varying pattern of concrete’s compressive strength, selecting an appropriate curve model is of paramount importance. Currently, widely adopted models such as polynomial, hyperbolic, and exponential models all possess limitations, particularly in terms of low fitting accuracy during the ultra-early-age stage. This paper innovatively introduces a mathematical model that utilizes a combined curve approach. This model boasts a simplified structure with only two fitting parameters. Compared to traditional models, when utilizing three or more sets of experimental data on compressive strength across different ages, the new model is capable of yielding more precise strength predictions. Due to its minimal reliance on experimental data, the new model exhibits high practicality and convenience in real-world applications. To validate its superiority, a detailed comparison between the new model and existing models was conducted based on several sets of experimental data. The results demonstrate that the new model has significant advantages in terms of mean fitting error and standard deviation, making its predictions the most reliable. For most cases, the standard deviation of the new model is reduced by approximately 30% to 80% compared to the second-best model, underscoring its exceptional stability and consistency. Additionally, the predicted long-term compressive strength values of the new model are closer to the design strength grade of the concrete. This model can also be successfully applied to predict the tensile strength of concrete during its ultra-early age. It has been demonstrated that the combined model proposed in this paper shows promising application prospects in evaluating the time-varying behavior of concrete strength.