Rong Yuan, Lei Liu, Jiao Mi, Xue Li, Fang Yang, Shifang Mao
{"title":"Development and validation of a risk prediction model for feeding intolerance in neurocritical patients with enteral nutrition.","authors":"Rong Yuan, Lei Liu, Jiao Mi, Xue Li, Fang Yang, Shifang Mao","doi":"10.3389/fnut.2024.1481279","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>This study collects and analyzes clinical data on enteral nutrition therapy in neurocritical patients, develops and validates a feeding intolerance (FI) risk prediction model, and provides a theoretical basis for screening patients with high risk of feeding intolerance (FI) and delivering personalized care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A convenience sampling method was employed to select 300 patients who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in China for early enteral nutrition therapy in the neurointensive care unit between April 2022 and December 2022. Independent risk factors for FI were identified using univariate and logistic regression analyses. A prediction model was established, and the goodness of fit and discriminant validity of the model were evaluated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The incidence of FI in neurocritical patients receiving enteral nutrition was 71%. Logistic regression analysis identified age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, mechanical ventilation, feeding via the nasogastric tube route, hyperglycemia, and low serum albumin as independent risk factors for the development of FI (<i>p</i> < 0.05). The predictive formula for FI risk was established as follows: Logit <i>p</i> = -14.737 + 1.184 × mechanical ventilation +2.309 × feeding route +1.650 × age + 1.336 × GCS tertile (6-8 points) + 1.696 × GCS tertile (3-5 points) + 1.753 × APACHE II score + 1.683 × blood glucose value +1.954 × serum albumin concentration. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed <i>χ<sup>2</sup></i> = 9.622, <i>p</i> = 0.293, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.941 (95% confidence interval: 0.912-0.970, <i>p</i> < 0.001). The optimal critical value was 0.767, with a sensitivity of 85.9%, a specificity of 90.8%, and a Youden index of 0.715.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The early enteral nutrition FI risk prediction model developed in this study demonstrated good predictive ability. This model can serve as a valuable reference for effectively assessing the risk of FI in neurocritical patients, thereby enhancing clinical outcomes.</p>","PeriodicalId":12473,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Nutrition","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11538017/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Frontiers in Nutrition","FirstCategoryId":"97","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3389/fnut.2024.1481279","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"农林科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/1/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"NUTRITION & DIETETICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Background: This study collects and analyzes clinical data on enteral nutrition therapy in neurocritical patients, develops and validates a feeding intolerance (FI) risk prediction model, and provides a theoretical basis for screening patients with high risk of feeding intolerance (FI) and delivering personalized care.
Methods: A convenience sampling method was employed to select 300 patients who were admitted to a tertiary hospital in China for early enteral nutrition therapy in the neurointensive care unit between April 2022 and December 2022. Independent risk factors for FI were identified using univariate and logistic regression analyses. A prediction model was established, and the goodness of fit and discriminant validity of the model were evaluated.
Results: The incidence of FI in neurocritical patients receiving enteral nutrition was 71%. Logistic regression analysis identified age, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) scores, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, mechanical ventilation, feeding via the nasogastric tube route, hyperglycemia, and low serum albumin as independent risk factors for the development of FI (p < 0.05). The predictive formula for FI risk was established as follows: Logit p = -14.737 + 1.184 × mechanical ventilation +2.309 × feeding route +1.650 × age + 1.336 × GCS tertile (6-8 points) + 1.696 × GCS tertile (3-5 points) + 1.753 × APACHE II score + 1.683 × blood glucose value +1.954 × serum albumin concentration. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed χ2 = 9.622, p = 0.293, and the area under the ROC curve was 0.941 (95% confidence interval: 0.912-0.970, p < 0.001). The optimal critical value was 0.767, with a sensitivity of 85.9%, a specificity of 90.8%, and a Youden index of 0.715.
Conclusion: The early enteral nutrition FI risk prediction model developed in this study demonstrated good predictive ability. This model can serve as a valuable reference for effectively assessing the risk of FI in neurocritical patients, thereby enhancing clinical outcomes.
期刊介绍:
No subject pertains more to human life than nutrition. The aim of Frontiers in Nutrition is to integrate major scientific disciplines in this vast field in order to address the most relevant and pertinent questions and developments. Our ambition is to create an integrated podium based on original research, clinical trials, and contemporary reviews to build a reputable knowledge forum in the domains of human health, dietary behaviors, agronomy & 21st century food science. Through the recognized open-access Frontiers platform we welcome manuscripts to our dedicated sections relating to different areas in the field of nutrition with a focus on human health.
Specialty sections in Frontiers in Nutrition include, for example, Clinical Nutrition, Nutrition & Sustainable Diets, Nutrition and Food Science Technology, Nutrition Methodology, Sport & Exercise Nutrition, Food Chemistry, and Nutritional Immunology. Based on the publication of rigorous scientific research, we thrive to achieve a visible impact on the global nutrition agenda addressing the grand challenges of our time, including obesity, malnutrition, hunger, food waste, sustainability and consumer health.