The impacts of extreme weather events on U.S. Public transit ridership

Abstract

Climate change is expected to dramatically change weather patterns across the U.S. To understand its impact on public transit, we use regression analysis to investigate: 1) the relationship between public transit ridership and very hot and cold days and days with heavy precipitation across 48 U.S. cities between 2002 and 2019, 2) how this relationship has changed over time, and 3) if there are differences in this relationship based on sociodemographic characteristics. We find a modest reduction in unlinked passenger trips (UPT) per capita, our proxy for public transit ridership, for each additional very hot day, very cold day, or day with heavy precipitation. The greatest reductions associated with very hot days occur toward the end of our study period and in lower-income cities. We also find greater reductions in UPT on buses associated with several consecutive days of cold and heat, but less so with rail.