The future of photovoltaic energy potential in Africa under higher emission scenarios: Insights from CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis

Abstract

The African continent is endowed with vast solar energy potential, yet the impacts of climate change on renewable energyresource remain poorly understood. This study comprehensively assesses the projected changes in key climate and solar energy parameters over Africa using an ensemble of 40 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis reveals a significant warming trend across the continent, with temperature increases ranging from 1.0 °C to 5.0 °C by the end of the century, depending on the emissions scenario. Concurrently, we also project a decrease in solar irradiance of up to 10 W/m² under high emission scenarios in parts of West, Central, East and Sahara regions of Africa, coupled with a neutral/slight increase in cloud cover of up to 3 %. These changes are expected to reduce the performance ratio (Pr) of photovoltaic systems by 2–4 % and decrease the photovoltaic potential (PVP) by as much as 15 %, particularly in the Sahara, West, and Central Africa regions. Seasonal analysis further highlights the complex spatial and temporal patterns of these changes, with the most pronounced decreases in PVP occurring during the summer and autumn seasons under high-emission scenarios. These findings underscore the critical need for targeted adaptation strategies to ensure the resilience of Africa’s solar energy sector in the face of a rapidly changing climate.