Time series patterns of dengue and associated climate variables in Bangladesh and Singapore (2000-2020): a comparative study of statistical models to forecast dengue cases.
Md Tauhedul Islam, A S M Maksud Kamal, Md Momin Islam, Sorif Hossain
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study explores the effect of climate factors on dengue incidence in Bangladesh and Singapore from 2000 to 2020. Various forecasting models, including Seasonal ARIMA, Poisson regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and other statistical techniques, were applied to forecast dengue trends and generate future datasets. The results showed that Bangladesh has higher mean temperatures. The Poisson regression indicated that rainfall positively correlated with dengue cases in Bangladesh, while humidity and sunshine showed negative associations. In Singapore, temperature was positively associated with dengue cases, while rainfall and humidity had inverse relationships. ARIMA models predicted Singapore would experience the highest dengue cases by 2023. Based on the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), the TBATS model was most accurate for predicting dengue cases in Bangladesh, while both ARIMA and TBATS models performed well in Singapore. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers in Singapore and Bangladesh to develop climate-based warning systems.
期刊介绍:
International Journal of Environmental Health Research ( IJEHR ) is devoted to the rapid publication of research in environmental health, acting as a link between the diverse research communities and practitioners in environmental health. Published articles encompass original research papers, technical notes and review articles. IJEHR publishes articles on all aspects of the interaction between the environment and human health. This interaction can broadly be divided into three areas: the natural environment and health – health implications and monitoring of air, water and soil pollutants and pollution and health improvements and air, water and soil quality standards; the built environment and health – occupational health and safety, exposure limits, monitoring and control of pollutants in the workplace, and standards of health; and communicable diseases – disease spread, control and prevention, food hygiene and control, and health aspects of rodents and insects. IJEHR is published in association with the International Federation of Environmental Health and includes news from the Federation of international meetings, courses and environmental health issues.