Determinants of Environmental Pollution in China: Novel Findings from ARDL Method.

Abstract

This study examines how EC, FF use, RC, POP growth, trade, GDP, and CO₂ emissions are interrelated in China. It aims to clarify how these factors together impact environmental pollution and economic sustainability. The motivation stems from China's dual challenge of sustaining economic growth while mitigating environmental degradation, particularly CO₂ emissions. Understanding the intricate relationships among these variables is critical for shaping adequate energy and environmental policies in the context of China's growing role as a global economic power. The empirical methodology utilizes time-series data from 2000 to 2023 and applies econometric techniques, including Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). These methods allow for exploring both long-term and short-term dynamics among the variables and identifying causal relationships. The key findings reveal a significant long-term relationship between EC, FF use, GDP, and CO₂ emissions, with RC increasingly crucial in mitigating carbon emissions. In the short term, there is bidirectional causality between energy utilization and economic growth, indicating mutual feedback between energy demand and economic development. POP growth and trade activities also significantly influence energy utilization patterns and emissions. The policy implications are profound: China must prioritize promoting RC, enhancing energy efficiency, and strengthening environmental regulations to decouple economic growth from environmental degradation. Policies should also integrate sustainable urban planning and international cooperation to accelerate the transition to a low-carbon economy. These strategies ensure China can meet its economic goals without compromising environmental sustainability.