Study on the efficiency evolution of carbon emissions and factors affecting them in 143 countries worldwide

Abstract

Global warming caused by carbon emissions has been recognized as a threat to public health and welfare. Therefore, carbon emission reduction is necessary for countries to cope with the serious challenges posed by global warming. In this study, we first calculated the (carbon emission efficiency) CEE of 143 countries from 2016 to 2021 using the super-efficiency SBM method. We constructed the Markov chain probability transfer matrix to study each country's state evolution and transfer probability of CEE. Secondly, the CEE changes of each country in different periods are explored based on the Malmquist index method. Finally, the 143 countries are categorized into 5 zonal groups using the K-means clustering method, and the carbon emission impact factors (CEIF) in different zonal groups are explored based on the STIRPAT model. The study results show that (1) 91 of the 143 countries in the world have yet to reach the average level of CEE, and the CEE varies greatly among countries. (2) The probability of state transfer of CEE types in each country is small, and there is transfer inertia and hierarchical solidification. (3) Among the 9 CEIF, the level of urbanization (UL) and electricity supply (ES) have the greatest impact on carbon emissions, followed by the level of technology (TL) and foreign trade (FT).