Disaster losses in Shanghai decreased under rapid urbanization: Evidence from 1980 to 2019

Abstract

In the context of rapid urbanization, understanding the spatiotemporal evolution of disasters in coastal cities is critical for disaster risk management and building urban resilience. This study established a comprehensive database of historical disasters from 1980 to 2019 to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of disaster losses in Shanghai, using both absolute and relative loss indicators, as well as disaster loss matrices. The results indicate that typhoons (with a composite loss index of 0.94), floods (0.74), and hailstorms (0.46) have been the major disasters affecting Shanghai over the past 40 years. Typhoons have had the greatest impact in terms of affected population, crop failure area, and the number of damaged and collapsed houses. Nearly half of the affected crop area and the crop failure were caused by floods, while hailstorms have posed the greatest threat to human life. Spatially, disasters have been more severe in the suburbs of Shanghai, while the central urban areas have been relatively less affected. Since the 1980s, rapid urbanization in Shanghai has significantly increased the exposure of population and assets; however, disaster severity has noticeably decreased. This reduction is attributed to advancements in socioeconomic development, urban planning and renewal, infrastructure investment, governance and risk management practices, technological innovation, and early warning systems, all of which have remarkably reduced the vulnerability of urban systems and enhanced the city's disaster resilience. Shanghai's experiences offer valuable insights for other coastal cities in developing countries as they pursue safer urban growth.