Controlling mission hazards through integrated abort and spare support optimization.

IF 3 3区 医学 Q1 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Risk Analysis Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI:10.1111/risa.17696
Li Yang, Fanping Wei, Xiaobing Ma, Qingan Qiu
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study explores the risk management challenges associated with safety-critical systems required to execute specific missions. The working component experiences degradation governed by a continuous-time discrete-state Markov chain, whose failure leads to an immediate system breakdown and safety losses. To enhance system survivability, a limited number of identical spares are available for online replacement throughout the mission. At the same time, the mission abort action arises promptly upon encountering excessive safety hazards. To strike an optimal balance between mission completion and system survivability, we delve into the adaptive scheduling of component replacements and mission termination decisions. The joint decision problem of interest constitutes a finite-time Markov decision process with resource limitation, under which we analyze a series of structural properties related to spare availability and component conditions. In particular, we establish structured control-limit policies for both spare replacement and mission termination decisions. For comparison purposes, we evaluate the performance of various heuristic policies analytically. Numerical experiments conducted on the driver system of radar equipment validate the superior model performance in enhancing operational performance while simultaneously mitigating hazard risks.

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来源期刊
Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis 数学-数学跨学科应用
CiteScore
7.50
自引率
10.50%
发文量
183
审稿时长
4.2 months
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the Society for Risk Analysis, Risk Analysis is ranked among the top 10 journals in the ISI Journal Citation Reports under the social sciences, mathematical methods category, and provides a focal point for new developments in the field of risk analysis. This international peer-reviewed journal is committed to publishing critical empirical research and commentaries dealing with risk issues. The topics covered include: • Human health and safety risks • Microbial risks • Engineering • Mathematical modeling • Risk characterization • Risk communication • Risk management and decision-making • Risk perception, acceptability, and ethics • Laws and regulatory policy • Ecological risks.
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