Risk Prediction Model of Peristomal Skin Complications Among Patients with Colorectal Cancer and an Ostomy: A Cross-sectional Study in Shanghai, China.

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the risk factors for peristomal skin complications (PSCs) in patients with colorectal cancer and an ostomy, construct a prediction model, and verify its effectiveness.

Methods: In this cross-sectional study, researchers recruited 265 patients with an ostomy at the stoma clinic of a tertiary hospital, from May 2022 to August 2023. Patients were divided into two groups: complications group (n = 81) and no complications group (n = 184). Researchers constructed a logistic regression prediction model using univariate and multivariate analyses. From May 2023 to August 2023, a validation group of 135 patients with an ostomy was selected for external validation of the model.

Results: The incidence of PSCs was 30.57% in the modeling group and 30.37% in the validation group. The predictor variables were preoperative and postoperative health education, tumor therapy within 3 months, preoperative stoma positioning, stoma height, stoma type, and excrement state. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .513, the area under the ROC curve was 0.872, the Youden index was 0.561, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.827 and 0.734. For external validation, the Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded a P value of .835, the area under the ROC curve was 0.887, and the sensitivity and specificity were 0.905 and 0.720, respectively.

Conclusions: The prediction model demonstrates good predictive efficacy and can serve as a reference for clinical caregivers in identifying patients at high risk of PSCs.