Won Joong Kim , Juyoung Ko , Won Soon Kwon , Chunyan Piao
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
Different crises, such as the GFC, COVID-19 pandemic, and RU-UA war, lead to the common economic consequences: fluctuations in global inflation. In a globalized world, global inflation matters because it also affects the national economy. Although the literature provides determinants of inflation at national and regional levels, no studies have measured global inflation and analyzed its sources of fluctuations during the GFC, COVID-19, and RU-UA war periods. To fill this void, we measure monthly global inflation and estimate its dynamics using a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression model with stochastic volatility. The results from global data show that global inflation during crisis periods is greatly affected by the monetary and the oil price shocks. Finally, the application to the EMU member countries implies that high EMU inflation rates in recent years were dominantly caused by excessive expansionary monetary policy in the EMU system.
期刊介绍：
Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.
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