Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037

Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi

This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.

{"title":"Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective","authors":"Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107037"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143488962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042

Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo

Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices

-

a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.

{"title":"Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model","authors":"Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices<span><math><mo>−</mo></math></span>a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107042"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143478492","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040

Jeong Eui Suh

The natural rate of interest (NRI) plays a critical role in maintaining stable and effective monetary policy. However, its unobservable nature has led most research to focus on quantitative methods for identifying its shifts, leaving theoretical approaches relatively underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how a central bank can implement optimal monetary policy within the New Keynesian framework by tracking NRI fluctuations after real shocks. The analysis demonstrates that when economic agents have strong confidence in policy consistency, the central bank can accurately detect NRI shifts within two periods, regardless of the type of real shocks. This finding implies that adopting an NRI-based interest rate rule may contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.

引用次数: 0

What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050

Federica Cappelli , Stefano Di Bucchianico

Empirical evidence has demonstrated the essential role of income distribution and richer households’ consumption patterns in determining excessive consumption–generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse this issue at the theoretical level, we employ the distinction between subsistence and luxury emissions and examine the connection between income distribution and environmentally wasteful emissions caused by luxury consumption. In our model, physical surplus production makes room for positive profitability. Income in the form of profits enables wasteful luxury consumption and boosts consumption–generated GHG emissions. We illustrate greener consumption, reformist and just transition scenarios to delineate social and environmental boundaries. Only the just transition scenario is found to be a viable option to respect both boundaries.

引用次数: 0

A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039

Marcos Escobar-Anel

This study developed a multivariate continuous-time model enabling a generalized constant elasticity of volatility (CEV) model on the marginal and a new stylized fact named constant elasticity of correlation ratio (CEC) in the dependence structure. Therefore, the entire structure is called the generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model. The model inherited the usefulness of the one-dimensional CEV model for pricing and portfolio optimization purposes. It enhances this model to ensure better-behaved volatility of returns. A unique weak solution exists for the multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Empirical analysis indicates the significance of the elasticity parameters driving the CEVC model and insights into the dynamics of volatilities and correlations. We estimated the embedded n-dimensional generalized CEV model (i.e., no CEC), the CEC model (i.e., no CEV), and the geometric Brownian motion (GBM, no CEC or CEV). The model was applied to portfolio optimization based on expected utility theory. The findings yield closed-form solutions for optimal strategies and value functions compared to other models.

{"title":"A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization","authors":"Marcos Escobar-Anel","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study developed a multivariate continuous-time model enabling a generalized constant elasticity of volatility (CEV) model on the marginal and a new stylized fact named constant elasticity of correlation ratio (CEC) in the dependence structure. Therefore, the entire structure is called the generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model. The model inherited the usefulness of the one-dimensional CEV model for pricing and portfolio optimization purposes. It enhances this model to ensure better-behaved volatility of returns. A unique weak solution exists for the multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Empirical analysis indicates the significance of the elasticity parameters driving the CEVC model and insights into the dynamics of volatilities and correlations. We estimated the embedded n-dimensional generalized CEV model (i.e., no CEC), the CEC model (i.e., no CEV), and the geometric Brownian motion (GBM, no CEC or CEV). The model was applied to portfolio optimization based on expected utility theory. The findings yield closed-form solutions for optimal strategies and value functions compared to other models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107039"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143464735","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Demographic change and long-term economic growth path in Asia

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107043

Jong-Wha Lee , Eunbi Song

Asia faces significant demographic challenges with uncertain economic implications. This study projects the economic trajectories of major Asian economies over 50 years using a growth model focused on demographic change. It provides a practical, tractable growth projection framework that avoids complex dynamic optimization. Utilizing historical data, this framework consists physical and human capital accumulation, technological progress, and labor-capital substitution. While a slowing labor force poses challenges, it does not predetermine Asia's growth prospects. The simulation results highlight the importance of technological progress and physical and human capital investment in mitigating demographic impacts. Projections suggest China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate will decline to 0.9–2.5% during 2051–2070. China will surpass Japan in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)-adjusted GDP per capita by 2050 and approach about 90% of the US level by 2070. India is projected to outpace the US in GDP by 2050 and potentially surpass China by 2070.

亚洲面临着重大的人口挑战，其经济影响尚不确定。本研究利用一个以人口变化为重点的增长模型，预测了亚洲主要经济体 50 年的经济轨迹。它提供了一个实用、可操作的增长预测框架，避免了复杂的动态优化。该框架利用历史数据，将物质资本和人力资本积累、技术进步和劳动力资本替代等因素结合在一起。虽然劳动力增长放缓带来了挑战，但这并不预示着亚洲的增长前景。模拟结果凸显了技术进步以及物质和人力资本投资在缓解人口结构影响方面的重要性。预测表明，2051-2070 年期间，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）增长率将降至 0.9-2.5%。到 2050 年，中国经购买力平价（PPP）调整后的人均 GDP 将超过日本，到 2070 年将接近美国的 90%。预计到 2050 年，印度的 GDP 将超过美国，并有可能在 2070 年超过中国。

引用次数: 0

Types of employment and well-being of rural residents: A multinomial endogenous switching regression application

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047

Wanglin Ma , Hongyun Zheng , David Boansi , Godwin S.A.K. Horlu , Victor Owusu

This study examines how participation in different types of employment affects rural residents' well-being, measured by household income and life satisfaction. Unlike previous studies that only consider binary employment status, we measure three employment types (pure farm work, mixed work, and pure non-farm work). Using the Chinese Social Survey data, we employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to address selection bias issues due to observed and unobserved heterogeneities and estimate the treatment effects simultaneously. The results suggest that relative to pure farm work, participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work significantly increases rural residents' well-being by increasing household income and life satisfaction. We also find that the income and life satisfaction enhancing effects of participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work (relative to participation in pure farm work) are generally larger for males (relative to females). These findings enrich our understanding of rural residents' employment choices. Rural development programs should consider helping pure farm workers (especially rural women) to participate in mixed and non-farm work to maximize rural residents’ well-being and boost sustainable rural development.

{"title":"Types of employment and well-being of rural residents: A multinomial endogenous switching regression application","authors":"Wanglin Ma , Hongyun Zheng , David Boansi , Godwin S.A.K. Horlu , Victor Owusu","doi":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107047","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study examines how participation in different types of employment affects rural residents' well-being, measured by household income and life satisfaction. Unlike previous studies that only consider binary employment status, we measure three employment types (pure farm work, mixed work, and pure non-farm work). Using the Chinese Social Survey data, we employ a multinomial endogenous switching regression model to address selection bias issues due to observed and unobserved heterogeneities and estimate the treatment effects simultaneously. The results suggest that relative to pure farm work, participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work significantly increases rural residents' well-being by increasing household income and life satisfaction. We also find that the income and life satisfaction enhancing effects of participation in pure non-farm work and mixed work (relative to participation in pure farm work) are generally larger for males (relative to females). These findings enrich our understanding of rural residents' employment choices. Rural development programs should consider helping pure farm workers (especially rural women) to participate in mixed and non-farm work to maximize rural residents’ well-being and boost sustainable rural development.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48419,"journal":{"name":"Economic Modelling","volume":"147 ","pages":"Article 107047"},"PeriodicalIF":4.2,"publicationDate":"2025-02-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143520801","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Do green policies enhance short-term economic growth? Assessing EU Recovery and Resilience Plans through the lens of Sustainable Development Goals

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107044

Michele Limosani, Emanuele Millemaci, Paolo Mustica

This paper examines the Recovery and Resilience Plans (RRPs) of the EU member states, focusing on their alignment with the environmental and socioeconomic dimensions of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the absence of numerical data, we develop a novel textual indicator that classifies countries’ preferences in RRPs between environmental and socioeconomic SDGs. Using this indicator, we explore the factors associated with these preferences and their implications for expected short-term economic growth. Our findings show that green gap and touristic attractiveness shape countries’ green policy priorities. Furthermore, we find that a stronger focus on environmental SDGs is positively associated with higher expected GDP growth in the short term, suggesting that investments and reforms aimed at environmental sustainability may also drive short-term economic gains. These results provide empirical support for green policies and may help mitigate skepticism from certain political and public sectors.

引用次数: 0

Is implicit cooperation reasonable for the economy? Corporate environmentalism under Kantian behavior

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107029

Hiroshi Kurata , Ngo Van Long

We investigate the effects on the market when firms adopt Kantian behavior, inherently fostering implicit cooperation in the context of corporate environmentalism. We focus on oligopolistic firms’ environmental technology investments and compare investment levels under the Kantian equilibrium with those under the Nash equilibrium and socially optimal levels. When firms are concerned about the environmental impact of others, their environmental investment under the Kantian equilibrium exceeds that under the Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, Nash equilibrium investment is consistently below the social optimum, while Kantian equilibrium investment can either match or approach the socially optimal level. The Kantian equilibrium investment may exceed the socially optimal level if a firm have substantial environmental concerns.

引用次数: 0

Penalized quadratic inference functions estimation of fixed effects partially linear varying coefficient spatial error model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107022

Jianbao Chen , Fen Li

This study introduces a novel fixed effects partially linear varying coefficient spatial error model featuring a correlation structure within individuals. A penalized quadratic inference functions estimation method for unknowns is proposed by employing B-spline to approximate the varying coefficient functions. Under certain regular conditions, the consistency and asymptotic normality of parametric estimators and the optimal convergence rate of nonparametric estimators are derived. Monte Carlo simulation indicates that the estimates perform strongly in finite sample scenarios. Empirical data analysis demonstrates that the model effectively captures the spatial error correlation of CO

_{2}

emissions and diverse factors’ linear and nonlinear influences on CO

_{2}

emissions. The proposed model and estimation method can be useful for researchers in related disciplines.

引用次数: 0

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Economic Modelling

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀