Economic Modelling最新文献

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Digital M&As, knowledge distance, and labor productivity: Technical and organizational perspectives

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107064

Yiming Zhao , Haitong Li , Zicong Miao , Keyang Li

This study investigates the impact of digital mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on labor productivity, focusing on the influence of the knowledge distance between merging parties. Using a sample of firms that underwent M&As between 2007 and 2022, we employ the difference-in-differences method to analyze whether digital M&As lead to higher labor productivity than non-digital M&As. Our results show that a longer knowledge distance between merging parties strengthens the positive relationship between digital M&As and labor productivity. Channel tests reveal that digital M&As improve labor productivity through enhanced technological innovation efficiency when knowledge distance is closer and reduce organizational instability when knowledge distance is longer. Moreover, the effects are more pronounced in larger, younger firms and those with higher labor intensity and better talent pools. These findings provide new insights into the outcomes of digital M&As and highlight the critical role of knowledge distance in shaping labor productivity.

引用次数: 0

Scaling and forecasting in a data-driven agent-based model: Applications to the Italian macroeconomy

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107046

Jacopo Di Domenico , Michele Catalano , Luca Riccetti

Agent-based models typically replicate stylized facts but lack macroeconomic forecasting capabilities. Recent advancements aim to make these models data-driven, enabling predictive applications in macroeconomics. Using data primarily from Eurostat (1996–2019), we calibrate an increasingly popular data-driven model to the Italian economy and evaluate the forecasting performance of macroeconomic variables for both Austria and Italy across various model scales. Our findings show that scale has no impact on forecast accuracy. To enhance the model we test modifications to agents’ expectations and firms’ production plans, and run long-term simulations to explore model dynamics and identify areas for refinement. The results demonstrate the model’s adaptability to different country specifications, with forecasting performance comparable to basic econometric models. Scale analysis and long-term analysis reveal unexplored heterogeneity and suggest that the model should further leverage the potential of agent-based microfoundations to improve forecasting.

引用次数: 0

Pension sustainability and government effectiveness in the presence of population aging

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107048

Dooyeon Cho , Kyung-woo Lee

This study investigates the nonlinear effect of population aging on pension sustainability, contingent on perceived government effectiveness. Analyzing heterogeneous panel data for 15 OECD economies over the period 2002–2019, our findings reveal nonlinear patterns and evolving dynamics over time. We find that the negative impact of population aging on pension sustainability intensifies significantly as government effectiveness diminishes, indicating that the manner in which government policies are implemented and managed significantly influences how effectively pension systems can cope with the challenges posed by population aging. Thus, enhanced government effectiveness can facilitate a smoother transition for pension systems, ensuring their sustainability and supportiveness for retirees despite demographic shifts. Our findings highlight the importance of improving governance practices and policy implementation strategies in the face of population aging.

引用次数: 0

How does digital technology adoption affect corporate employment? Evidence from China

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107045

Yuwen Zhou , Xin Shi

The rapid adoption of digital technologies has sparked debates about their employment effects, yet evidence from developing economies remains limited. Previous studies highlight labor market polarization, where automation disproportionately displaces low-skilled workers while benefiting high-skilled ones. Using text analysis of corporate disclosures, we measure digital adoption across Chinese firms (2010–2019) and estimate its employment impacts. A one standard deviation increase in digital adoption raises corporate employment by 5.47%, driven by shifts toward non-routine cognitive roles and higher-educated employees. Digital adoption also increases average wages but leaves labor share unchanged. Three mechanisms explain these effects: total factor productivity (TFP) gains, market share expansion, and capital deepening, with TFP contributing most strongly. These results reveal how digital technologies reshape employment structures, emphasizing the need for firms to balance technological investments with organizational adaptation to mitigate skill mismatches.

引用次数: 0

Optimal environmental policy and distortionary fiscal policy interactions: A DSGE perspective

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107037

Mehrab Kiarsi , Nahid Masoudi

This study examines the interactions between optimal environmental and distortionary fiscal policies within a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework using analytical and quantitative methods. We demonstrate that the marginal cost of public funds can exceed, be equal, or fall below one, based on utility specifications and the degree of relative risk aversion. This variation can lead to under-, over-, or optimally taxed environmental damages, with the latter two suggesting the potential for a strong double dividend. Furthermore, we challenge conventional labor tax smoothing theory, showing that a Ramsey-optimal policy allows labor tax volatility in the absence of carbon taxation. Our quantitative analysis reveals that an effective carbon policy reduces fluctuations and significantly mitigates contractions in major economic variables such as GDP, consumption, and welfare in response to environmental shocks. Increased pollution leads to higher emission costs, prompting the Ramsey planner to raise the carbon tax and increase abatement efforts. However, positive government spending or productivity shocks increase the cost of abatement, leading to lower carbon taxes.

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引用次数: 0

Cultural values and interbank markets: An agent-based stock-flow consistent model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107042

Jessica Reale , Alessio Emanuele Biondo

Recent financial crises have revealed tensions in interbank markets, challenging conventional monetary policies and financial stability. After the sovereign debt crisis, shifts in banks’ funding preferences led to numerous issues in payment systems and European financial integration. Through this study, we analyzed the impact of firms’, households’, and bank managers’ personal values on their financial decisions in credit and interbank markets, highlighting how cultural differences influence financial choices

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a critical factor that remains insufficiently addressed in the existing literature. To address this gap, we incorporated individual values into firms’ and households’ leverage attitudes and banks’ risk-taking behavior, thereby shaping interbank funding maturities and impacting monetary policy outcomes within an agent-based stock-flow consistent framework. The results of this study suggest the following: (i) value distributions featuring risk-averse banks and prudent households promote economic growth; however, they do so at the cost of increasing shock vulnerabilities; (ii) cultural diversity may challenge interest rate steering policies; (iii) imbalanced cultural distributions exhibit divergent speeds of adjustment and require tailored monetary policies to mitigate the disproportionate effects on culturally diverse economies.

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引用次数: 0

An interest rate rule following the natural rate of interest for optimal monetary policy

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107040

Jeong Eui Suh

The natural rate of interest (NRI) plays a critical role in maintaining stable and effective monetary policy. However, its unobservable nature has led most research to focus on quantitative methods for identifying its shifts, leaving theoretical approaches relatively underexplored. This study addresses this gap by examining how a central bank can implement optimal monetary policy within the New Keynesian framework by tracking NRI fluctuations after real shocks. The analysis demonstrates that when economic agents have strong confidence in policy consistency, the central bank can accurately detect NRI shifts within two periods, regardless of the type of real shocks. This finding implies that adopting an NRI-based interest rate rule may contribute to enhancing policy effectiveness.

引用次数: 0

What is the role of profit and luxury consumption in the ecological transition?

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107050

Federica Cappelli , Stefano Di Bucchianico

Empirical evidence has demonstrated the essential role of income distribution and richer households’ consumption patterns in determining excessive consumption–generated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To analyse this issue at the theoretical level, we employ the distinction between subsistence and luxury emissions and examine the connection between income distribution and environmentally wasteful emissions caused by luxury consumption. In our model, physical surplus production makes room for positive profitability. Income in the form of profits enables wasteful luxury consumption and boosts consumption–generated GHG emissions. We illustrate greener consumption, reformist and just transition scenarios to delineate social and environmental boundaries. Only the just transition scenario is found to be a viable option to respect both boundaries.

引用次数: 0

A generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model: Empirical evidence and application for portfolio optimization

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107039

Marcos Escobar-Anel

This study developed a multivariate continuous-time model enabling a generalized constant elasticity of volatility (CEV) model on the marginal and a new stylized fact named constant elasticity of correlation ratio (CEC) in the dependence structure. Therefore, the entire structure is called the generalized constant elasticity of volatility and correlation ratio (CEVC) model. The model inherited the usefulness of the one-dimensional CEV model for pricing and portfolio optimization purposes. It enhances this model to ensure better-behaved volatility of returns. A unique weak solution exists for the multidimensional stochastic differential equations. Empirical analysis indicates the significance of the elasticity parameters driving the CEVC model and insights into the dynamics of volatilities and correlations. We estimated the embedded n-dimensional generalized CEV model (i.e., no CEC), the CEC model (i.e., no CEV), and the geometric Brownian motion (GBM, no CEC or CEV). The model was applied to portfolio optimization based on expected utility theory. The findings yield closed-form solutions for optimal strategies and value functions compared to other models.

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引用次数: 0

Effects of wage compensation and containment policies on Labor supply during pandemics

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-02-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107030

Luciana C. Fiorini , Wilfredo L. Maldonado

The importance of combining wage compensation policies with contagion containment strategies during a pandemic became evident after the COVID-19 pandemic. We examine the impact of these policies on the labor market using an aggregative game framework that describes the interaction of individual and aggregate labor supply decisions, which has not been considered in previous approaches. Workers must choose their labor supply considering the probability of contagion and compensation for income reductions in case of infection and assess the probability of contagion based on the public perception of the aggregate labor supply. We analyze the effects of changes in contagion containment parameters and wage compensation policies on individual and aggregate labor supplies. We also demonstrate evident labor supply cycles and persistent oscillations in contagion probability values, which are commonly observed in pandemic processes. We conclude that successful public policies that are intended to stabilize the labor market depend on a combination of instruments that consider population size and workers’ risk aversion.

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引用次数: 0

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