Economic Modelling最新文献

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Did the American Rescue Plan cause inflation? A synthetic control approach 美国救援计划导致了通货膨胀吗？合成控制方法

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106935

Dong Gyun Ko

This paper investigates the fiscal impact of the American Rescue Plan (ARP) on the post-pandemic surge in U.S. inflation. In the existing literature, the dominant strategy for identifying inflation determinants is through structural or reduced-form equation modeling; however, a definitive consensus on the causes of the U.S. inflationary episode remains elusive due to a lack of data-driven counterfactual analysis. To address this gap, we uniquely apply a synthetic control approach to estimate the causal effect of the ARP on U.S. inflation. The findings reveal that the ARP excessively stimulates aggregate demand via large-scale unfunded transfers, causing U.S. inflation to deviate upward from its counterfactual path. Moreover, this policy intervention significantly elevates inflation expectations and diminishes consumer confidence, thereby activating the fiscal limit mechanism: unfunded fiscal shocks, combined with waning fiscal credibility, lead private agents to anticipate that national debt will be inflated away, resulting in large and persistent inflation.

本文研究了美国救援计划（ARP）对大流行后美国通胀飙升的财政影响。在现有文献中，确定通胀决定因素的主要策略是通过结构方程或还原方程建模；然而，由于缺乏数据驱动的反事实分析，人们对美国通胀事件的原因仍未达成明确共识。为了弥补这一不足，我们独特地采用了一种合成控制方法来估计 ARP 对美国通胀的因果效应。研究结果表明，ARP 通过大规模无资金保障的转移支付过度刺激了总需求，导致美国通胀率偏离了其反事实路径。此外，这种政策干预大大抬高了通胀预期，削弱了消费者信心，从而激活了财政限制机制：资金无着落的财政冲击，加上财政信誉的减弱，导致私人代理人预期国债将被膨胀掉，从而导致大规模和持续的通胀。

引用次数: 0

Grandchild care and grandparents’ labor supply 孙辈照料和祖父母的劳动力供给

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106936

Yanran Chen , Youji Lyu

Grandchild care is becoming an increasingly important part of raising children as the population ages and the cost of parenting increases. However, the labor supply effect of grandchild care on grandparents remains understudied. This study aims to identify the causal impact of grandchild care on grandparents’ labor supply in China. The main estimates demonstrate that providing grandchild care would significantly and intensively crowd out grandparents’ labor supply, particularly for grandmothers. Further heterogeneity analyses suggest that the negative labor supply effect varies by employment status and sector, regional characteristics, and grandparents’ demographic features. The paper also demonstrates that the negative labor supply effect operates via two pathways: reduced old-age income and increased adult children’s income, with the latter dominating the former. Moreover, the findings show that increased grandchild care is associated with a lower incidence of financial transfers from parents to grandparents.

随着人口老龄化和养育成本的增加，祖辈照料正成为养育子女的一个日益重要的组成部分。然而，孙辈照料对祖父母劳动力供给的影响仍未得到充分研究。本研究旨在确定孙辈照料对中国祖父母劳动力供给的因果影响。主要估计结果表明，提供孙子女照料会显著且密集地挤出祖父母的劳动力供给，尤其是对祖母而言。进一步的异质性分析表明，劳动供给负效应因就业状况和行业、地区特征以及祖父母的人口特征而异。本文还证明，负的劳动力供给效应通过两个途径产生：养老收入减少和成年子女收入增加，后者在前者中占主导地位。此外，研究结果表明，对孙辈照顾的增加与父母向祖父母经济转移的发生率降低有关。

引用次数: 0

The cyclicality of the finance premium over the business cycle 融资溢价在商业周期中的周期性

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106943

George J. Bratsiotis , Chashika D. Kalubowila

This paper examines the main determinants of the cyclicality of the finance premium in the cost channel framework, which has received less attention in the literature. We decompose the finance premium into a cost effect and a leverage effect. We show that in both the cost channel model and the credit channel model (Bernanke, Gertler and Gilchrist 1999), the cyclicality of the finance premium is determined mainly by the size and sign of the leverage effect. Some key factors that determine the leverage effect are, the nature of shocks, the degree of loan persistence in relation to output or net worth, and the stance of monetary policy.

本文研究了成本渠道框架下融资溢价周期性的主要决定因素，该框架在文献中受到的关注较少。我们将融资溢价分解为成本效应和杠杆效应。我们的研究表明，在成本渠道模型和信贷渠道模型（伯南克、格特勒和吉尔克里斯特，1999 年）中，融资溢价的周期性主要由杠杆效应的大小和符号决定。决定杠杆效应的一些关键因素包括：冲击的性质、贷款相对于产出或净值的持续程度以及货币政策的立场。

引用次数: 0

Disentangling the heterogeneous effect of natural resources on economic growth 厘清自然资源对经济增长的异质性影响

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106927

Daniel Aparicio-Pérez , Jordi Ripollés

Previous studies on the impact of natural resources on economic growth have produced mixed results, which could be partly explained by unobserved heterogeneity that has not been adequately accounted for. This paper aims to identify this heterogeneity in the resource-growth nexus and explore the potential factors driving it. Using a panel dataset of 97 countries from 1990 to 2019, we apply a grouped fixed-effects estimator to identify groups of countries with distinct time-varying growth patterns and differing economic responses to natural resource wealth. We then use an ordered probit model to examine the drivers of this heterogeneity, focusing on institutional factors and other transmission channels. Our findings show that economic and political institutions, social capital, and export diversification are key to explaining group membership, with some groups experiencing positive and others negative resource-growth effects. This underscores the need to account for unobserved heterogeneity and consider institutional quality as multidimensional.

以往关于自然资源对经济增长的影响的研究结果好坏参半，部分原因可能是未充分考虑到未观察到的异质性。本文旨在确定资源与经济增长关系中的这种异质性，并探索驱动这种异质性的潜在因素。利用 1990 年至 2019 年 97 个国家的面板数据集，我们采用分组固定效应估计器来识别具有不同时变增长模式和对自然资源财富的不同经济反应的国家组。然后，我们使用有序概率模型研究这种异质性的驱动因素，重点关注制度因素和其他传导渠道。我们的研究结果表明，经济和政治体制、社会资本和出口多样化是解释群体成员资格的关键，一些群体经历了积极的资源增长效应，而另一些群体则经历了消极的资源增长效应。这突出表明，有必要考虑未观察到的异质性，并将制度质量视为多维的。

引用次数: 0

A spatial one-sided error model to identify where unarrested criminals live 确定未被捕罪犯居住地的空间单边误差模型

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106929

Alejandro Puerta-Cuartas , Andrés Ramírez-Hassan

The place of residence of unarrested criminals is mostly unknown. Existing research has not yet exploited that arrested criminals are a lower bound for criminals to enhance law enforcement and design structural policies. Based upon the stochastic frontier analysis, we propose a model to identify neighborhoods where unarrested criminals are likelier to live. We illustrate our approach empirically by considering Medellín, Colombia, a natural experimental field to analyze crime. We identify that unarrested murderers and drug dealers often reside in overlapping or neighboring areas with shared risk factors, reflecting the city’s history of drug-related violence. In addition, we find that employment policies targeting the young and unemployed living in the central-east and the north can mitigate homicides and motorcycle thefts. These findings illustrate how our proposal can be implemented to strengthen state capacities and design targeted, place-based policies for preventing and mitigating crime.

未被捕罪犯的居住地大多不为人知。现有研究尚未利用被捕罪犯作为罪犯的下限来加强执法和设计结构性政策。基于随机前沿分析，我们提出了一个模型来识别未被捕罪犯更有可能居住的街区。哥伦比亚麦德林是一个分析犯罪的天然实验场，我们通过该实验场来说明我们的方法。我们发现，未被捕的杀人犯和毒贩往往居住在具有共同风险因素的重叠或邻近地区，这反映了该市与毒品有关的暴力历史。此外，我们还发现，针对居住在中东部和北部的年轻人和失业者的就业政策可以缓解凶杀案和摩托车盗窃案。这些发现说明了如何通过实施我们的建议来加强国家能力，并设计有针对性的、以地方为基础的政策来预防和减轻犯罪。

引用次数: 0

Understanding the informal economy: The influence of political ideology during financial crises 了解非正规经济：金融危机期间政治意识形态的影响

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106934

Thanh Cong Nguyen , Thuy Tien Ho

This study investigates both the short- and long-run impact of different types of financial crises on the size of the informal economy, addressing the gap in the crisis-informality relationship. Using a sample of 320 financial crises in 146 countries over the period 1993–2020, we provide evidence that financial crises lead to a persistent increase in the size of the informal economy, confirming that the hidden economy serves as both a safety net for household income and a crisis amplifier. Rising unemployment and prolonged financial crises, especially debt crises, are mechanisms that explain these results. Left-wing governments’ policies, by promoting labour rights and protections, reduce labour market flexibility and consequently expand the informal economy during financial crises. These findings benefit policymakers by offering new insights into the crisis-informality relationship and the influence of political ideology.

本研究调查了不同类型的金融危机对非正规经济规模的短期和长期影响，解决了危机与非正规经济关系中的空白。利用 1993-2020 年间 146 个国家 320 次金融危机的样本，我们提供了金融危机导致非正规经济规模持续扩大的证据，证实了隐性经济既是家庭收入的安全网，也是危机的放大器。失业率上升和长期金融危机，尤其是债务危机，是解释这些结果的机制。左翼政府的政策通过促进劳工权利和保护，降低了劳动力市场的灵活性，从而在金融危机期间扩大了非正规经济。这些发现为政策制定者提供了关于危机与非正规经济关系以及政治意识形态影响的新见解，从而使他们受益匪浅。

引用次数: 0

Anatomy of wage rigidity in China: Lessons from the global financial crisis for post-pandemic recovery 中国工资刚性的剖析：全球金融危机对大流行后复苏的启示

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106932

Jian Ding , Yixiao Zhou

This study examines the extent and cause of Chinese firms’ labour cost adjustment during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). First, we confirm that some typical features of downward nominal wage rigidity during the recession period coincide with the implementation of the Labour Contract Law, covering wages and social security payments. Second, we find that firms with higher shares of casual workers could lower their labour cost more effectively. The overall results demonstrate that the Quantitative Easing programme was necessary for counteracting the economic downturn during the GFC. Therefore, the length of this on-going crisis would be affected by wage rigidity in the economy. This study has implications for addressing the economic downturn in China following the COVID-19 pandemic, which is characterised by a high level of unemployment.

本研究探讨了 2008 年全球金融危机期间中国企业劳动力成本调整的程度和原因。首先，我们证实了经济衰退期间名义工资刚性下行的一些典型特征与《劳动合同法》的实施相吻合，该法涵盖了工资和社会保障的支付。其次，我们发现临时工比例较高的企业可以更有效地降低劳动力成本。总体结果表明，量化宽松计划对于应对全球金融危机期间的经济衰退是必要的。因此，经济中的工资刚性将影响这场持续危机的持续时间。本研究对中国应对 COVID-19 大流行后的经济衰退具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

A long short-term memory enhanced realized conditional heteroskedasticity model 长短期记忆增强型实现条件异方差模型

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106922

Chen Liu , Chao Wang , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Robert Kohn

This paper examines the potential of using realized volatility measures for capturing financial markets’ uncertainty. Earlier studies show the usefulness of the high-frequency data based Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (RealGARCH) model for enhancing volatility forecasting accuracy; however, this model focuses only on linear and short-term dependencies of realized volatility measures on the underlying volatility. Recognizing the critical economic implications of this limitation, the long short-term memory neural network is integrated into RealGARCH, aiming to explore the full impact of realized volatility on volatility modeling and forecasting via capturing the nonlinear and long-term effects. A comprehensive empirical study using 31 indices from 2004 to 2021 is conducted. The results demonstrate that our proposed framework achieves superior in-sample and out-of-sample performance compared to several benchmark models. Importantly, it retains interpretability and effectively adapts to the stylized facts observed in volatility, emphasizing its significant potential for enhancing economic decision-making and risk management.

本文探讨了利用已实现波动率指标捕捉金融市场不确定性的潜力。早期的研究表明，基于高频数据的广义自回归条件异方差（RealGARCH）模型对于提高波动率预测的准确性非常有用；然而，该模型只关注已实现波动率指标对基础波动率的线性和短期依赖关系。认识到这一局限性对经济的重要影响，我们将长短期记忆神经网络集成到 RealGARCH 中，旨在通过捕捉非线性和长期效应，探索已实现波动率对波动率建模和预测的全面影响。我们利用 2004 年至 2021 年的 31 个指数进行了全面的实证研究。结果表明，与几个基准模型相比，我们提出的框架在样本内和样本外都取得了优异的性能。重要的是，它保持了可解释性，并有效地适应了在波动中观察到的风格化事实，强调了其在加强经济决策和风险管理方面的巨大潜力。

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引用次数: 0

Gatekeeping in primary care: Analysing GP referral patterns and specialist consultations in the NHS 初级保健中的把关：分析全科医生转诊模式和国家医疗服务体系中的专家会诊

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106925

Federico Innocenti , Barry McCormick , Catia Nicodemo

This study investigates the impact of increasing the number of gatekeeper General Practitioners (GPs) on referral rates and specialist treatments. Gatekeeping is a supply-side strategy implemented to control health expenditure and improve efficiency by limiting patient access to services below marginal cost. It aims to address specialist moral hazard by reducing the overuse of expensive diagnostics and replacing them with more cost-effective GP diagnostic information. Using administrative data from 2004 to 2011, we examine whether the availability of gatekeeper GPs in local areas is associated with changes in outpatient referrals and elective admissions. Our findings reveal that increasing GP supply in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas leads to a decrease in both outpatient referrals and elective admissions. However, these effects are less pronounced in prosperous areas or regions with high GP referral rates. Interestingly, we observe that having more GP practices in a specific area implies higher referral rates and elective admissions. These findings offer valuable insights that can assist policymakers in crafting targeted policies to effectively reduce healthcare costs and enhance the overall efficiency of the health system.

本研究调查了增加把关全科医生（GP）人数对转诊率和专科治疗的影响。把关是一种供应方策略，旨在通过限制患者获得低于边际成本的服务来控制医疗支出和提高效率。其目的是通过减少过度使用昂贵的诊断方法，并以更具成本效益的全科医生诊断信息取而代之，从而解决专科医生的道德风险问题。利用 2004 年至 2011 年的行政数据，我们研究了当地全科医生守门人的可用性是否与门诊转诊和择期入院的变化有关。我们的研究结果表明，在社会经济条件较差的地区，全科医生供应量的增加会导致门诊转诊和择期入院人数的减少。然而，这些影响在繁荣地区或全科医生转诊率高的地区并不明显。有趣的是，我们发现在特定地区拥有更多的全科医生诊所意味着更高的转诊率和择期入院率。这些发现提供了宝贵的见解，有助于决策者制定有针对性的政策，有效降低医疗成本，提高医疗系统的整体效率。

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引用次数: 0

The Perverse Valuation Effect on Mergers and Acquisitions in Europe 欧洲并购的反向估值效应

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2024-11-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106928

Fabio E.G. Röhrer , Lebogang Mateane , Christian R. Proaño

We investigate the macroeconomic and financial determinants of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Europe and address the gap in understanding how financial market dynamics influence corporate decisions. While previous literature has examined macroeconomic factors affecting M&A, the impact of (10-year government) bond yields remains underexplored. We fill this gap using panel data of 21 European Union Countries over 2006:Q1–2022:Q2. Across different model specifications we find that bond yields and real gross domestic product growth are robust determinants of M&A, even after controlling for other determinants. A novelty of our study is that rising and higher bond yields are associated with a reduction in M&A activity because investors are shifting their portfolios out of bonds and into riskier assets like equities, thereby increasing acquisition costs. We denote this as a “perverse valuation effect” offering new insights into M&A dynamics.

我们研究了欧洲并购（M&A）的宏观经济和金融决定因素，弥补了在理解金融市场动态如何影响企业决策方面的空白。以往的文献研究了影响并购的宏观经济因素，但（10 年期政府）债券收益率的影响仍未得到充分探讨。我们利用 2006:Q1-2022:Q2 期间 21 个欧盟国家的面板数据填补了这一空白。在不同的模型规格中，我们发现即使控制了其他决定因素，债券收益率和实际国内生产总值增长也是 M&A 的稳健决定因素。我们研究的一个新颖之处在于，债券收益率的上升和提高与 M&A 活动的减少相关联，因为投资者将其投资组合从债券转向股票等风险较高的资产，从而增加了购买成本。我们将此称为 "反向估值效应"，为研究并购动态提供了新的视角。

引用次数: 0

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Economic Modelling

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