Economic Modelling最新文献

英文中文

Can industrial technology convergence facilitate firms' international expansion? Firm-level empirical evidence from China 产业技术融合能促进企业的国际扩张吗？来自中国的企业层面的实证证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-02-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107524

Mudan Lan , Yuhong Huang

Amid rising global economic uncertainty, firms' international expansion faces mounting challenges, while the convergence of digital and real industries offers fresh strategic opportunities for high-level openness. Using data from Chinese listed firms, this study examines how such convergence shapes outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). Empirical results show that convergence significantly boosts both the probability and scale of OFDI, with this effect being greater in regions with strict intellectual property protection, high-technology industries, and export-oriented enterprises. Mechanism tests indicate that improvements in total factor productivity and easing of financing constraints are key drivers. Further evidence suggests convergence stimulates cross-border mergers and acquisitions and enhances overseas revenues. This research enriches understanding of the nexus between technology convergence and internationalization, offering policy insights for emerging economies to leverage the digital economy to strengthen global competitiveness. More broadly, the integration of digital and real industries will remain a vital catalyst for firms’ international growth.

在全球经济不确定性上升的背景下，企业的国际扩张面临越来越多的挑战，而数字和实体产业的融合为高水平的开放提供了新的战略机遇。本文利用中国上市公司的数据，考察了这种趋同如何影响对外直接投资（OFDI）。实证结果表明，趋同显著提高了对外直接投资的概率和规模，且在知识产权保护严格的地区、高技术产业地区和出口导向型企业地区，这种效应更大。机制测试表明，全要素生产率的提高和融资约束的缓解是关键驱动因素。进一步的证据表明，融合刺激了跨境并购，增加了海外收入。本研究丰富了对技术融合与国际化之间关系的理解，为新兴经济体利用数字经济增强全球竞争力提供了政策见解。更广泛地说，数字产业和实体产业的融合仍将是企业国际发展的重要催化剂。

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引用次数: 0

Quantifying systemic risk via high-dimensional CoVaR measures 通过高维CoVaR度量量化系统风险

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107494

Yufei Cao

I quantify high-dimensional conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR) measures, including multi-CoVaR (MCoVaR) and vulnerability-CoVaR (VCoVaR), to assess systemic risk arising from distress across multiple financial institutions. MCoVaR captures system-wide risk under the assumption that all institutions are distressed, whereas VCoVaR reflects scenarios in which at least one institution breaches its value-at-risk threshold. Using a two-step maximum log-likelihood approach based on multivariate dynamic conditional correlation (DCC)-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, I first estimate univariate GARCH parameters via quasi-likelihood methods and then estimate multivariate DCC parameters. Analyzing 246 U.S. financial institutions (73 banks, 52 brokers, 34 real estate firms, and 87 insurers) at both institutional and sectoral levels, I identify heterogeneous contributions to systemic risk across groups. Statistical tests confirm that each group plays a significant role in systemic vulnerability, although their relative importance depends on the specific systemic risk measure employed. Overall, the results provide new insights into the drivers of systemic risk associated with multivariate institutional distress.

我量化了高维条件风险价值（CoVaR）指标，包括多重风险价值（MCoVaR）和脆弱性风险价值（VCoVaR），以评估多个金融机构因困境而产生的系统性风险。在假设所有机构都陷入困境的情况下，MCoVaR捕获了系统范围的风险，而VCoVaR反映了至少一家机构超过其风险价值阈值的情况。本文采用基于多元动态条件相关-广义自回归条件异方差（GARCH）模型的两步最大对数似然方法，首先通过拟似然方法估计单变量GARCH参数，然后估计多元DCC参数。我分析了246家美国金融机构（73家银行、52家经纪人、34家房地产公司和87家保险公司）在机构和部门层面的情况，确定了不同群体对系统性风险的异质性贡献。统计测试证实，尽管它们的相对重要性取决于所采用的具体系统性风险措施，但每个群体在系统性脆弱性中都发挥着重要作用。总体而言，研究结果为与多元制度困境相关的系统性风险驱动因素提供了新的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Modeling electricity markets when renewable power increases 可再生能源增加时的电力市场模型

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107504

Clas Eriksson, Johan Lindén, Christos Papahristodoulou

We analyze theoretically a simple model of the electricity market where the supply of Variable Renewable Electricity (VRE) and demand are both shifting stochastically over time. The correlation between these shifts is crucial for the equilibrium price of electricity. Based on hourly equilibria we compute yearly producer surpluses, consumer utility and the value factor of VRE, under different conditions.

While an increasing correlation between VRE and demand causes a decline in average price and total producer surplus, the VRE producer surplus increases, because these producers sell much when price is high. Higher VRE and peak capacities reduce the average price and the total producer surplus, but a negative correlation can counteract this, by causing high prices more frequently. In addition, the value factor of VRE does not decline monotonously, contrary to findings in previous studies.

我们从理论上分析了一个电力市场的简单模型，其中可变可再生电力（VRE）的供应和需求都随时间随机变化。这些变化之间的相关性对于均衡电价至关重要。基于小时均衡，我们计算了不同条件下的年生产者剩余、消费者效用和VRE的价值因子。虽然VRE与需求之间的相关性增加导致平均价格和生产者总剩余下降，但VRE生产者剩余增加，因为这些生产者在价格高时销售得多。较高的VRE和峰值容量降低了平均价格和生产者总剩余，但负相关可以通过更频繁地导致高价格来抵消这一点。此外，VRE的价值因子并不是单调下降的，这与以往的研究结果相反。

引用次数: 0

Digital supply chains and firm market performance: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China 数字供应链与企业市场绩效：来自中国准自然实验的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107490

Feng Yun , Jinyu Chen , Shuzhen Liang , Mingxun Liu

In response to global supply chain restructuring in recent years, China has committed to promoting firm supply chain upgrades through digital technologies. In this paper, we employ China’s Supply Chain Innovation and Application policy (SCIA) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine how supply chain reform affects firms’ market performance. Analyzing data from Chinese A-share listed companies (2014–2022) through a difference-in-difference model, we find that: (1) supply chain reform significantly enhances firms’ operating income and product market performance; (2) the positive impact is more pronounced in firms with higher upstreamness, lower customer stability, those operating in non-high-tech manufacturing sectors, and those with lower initial digitalization levels; (3) the efficacy of supply chain reform operates through two primary mechanisms: optimization of internal resource allocation and reduction of external transaction costs; (4) such reform increases firms’ openness and improve overall performance. Our findings offer valuable policy implications for developing countries and transition economies seeking to modernize their supply chains and accelerate economic transformation in an increasingly digitalized global marketplace.

近年来，为应对全球供应链结构调整，中国致力于通过数字技术推动企业供应链升级。本文以中国供应链创新与应用政策（SCIA）为准自然实验，考察供应链改革对企业市场绩效的影响。通过对2014-2022年中国a股上市公司数据的差异模型分析，我们发现：(1)供应链改革显著提高了企业的营业收入和产品市场绩效；(2)上游性较高、客户稳定性较低、非高科技制造业企业和初始数字化水平较低的企业对数字化的正向影响更为显著；(3)供应链改革的有效性主要通过优化内部资源配置和降低外部交易成本两种机制发挥作用；(4)提高企业开放度，提高企业整体绩效。我们的研究结果为寻求在日益数字化的全球市场中实现供应链现代化和加速经济转型的发展中国家和转型经济体提供了宝贵的政策启示。

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引用次数: 0

Cross-border M&As, international knowledge flows and global value chain upgrading: Evidence from belt & road countries 跨国并购、国际知识流动与全球价值链升级：来自“一带一路”国家的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107492

Qian Lv , Yicheng Tang , Lulan Ge , Daohan Ni

China and the countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) possess significant potential to strengthen their positions in global value chains (GVCs) through enhanced international knowledge flows. Yet, the role of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in driving GVC upgrading via such knowledge transmission remains insufficiently examined. Using industry-level panel data from 38 BRI countries over the period 2007–2021 , we show that cross-border M&As substantially improve home-country GVC positions by facilitating the diffusion of international R&D, skilled human capital, and automation-related technologies. We further find that these effects are heterogeneous: they are more pronounced in economies with lower levels of financial development and digitalization, and are significantly strengthened under the BRI framework. These findings underscore the importance of international investment participation and the strategic role of BRI policy in enabling countries to capture higher value within GVCs.

通过加强国际知识流动，中国和“一带一路”倡议参与国在加强其在全球价值链中的地位方面具有巨大潜力。然而，跨境并购（M&As）在通过这种知识传递推动全球价值链升级方面的作用仍未得到充分研究。利用2007年至2021年期间来自38个“一带一路”国家的行业层面面板数据，我们发现跨境并购通过促进国际研发、熟练人力资本和自动化相关技术的扩散，大大提高了母国的全球价值链地位。我们进一步发现，这些影响具有异质性：在金融发展水平和数字化水平较低的经济体中更为明显，在“一带一路”框架下得到显著加强。这些发现强调了国际投资参与的重要性，以及“一带一路”政策在帮助各国在全球价值链中获取更高价值方面的战略作用。

引用次数: 0

Market professional performance under insider information leakage 内幕信息泄露下的市场专业表现

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107500

Yu Ma , Hong Liu , Jing Wang

We construct a multiagent model in which an insider simultaneously discloses information to a market professional and outsiders, and characterize the resulting linear equilibrium. Our analysis yields three main results. First, the insider strategically adjusts the precision of disclosure based on the quality of the market professional information. Second, when the market professional is well-informed, their expected profits under information leakage exceed those without leakage, resulting in a form of self-relative outperformance that departs from previous theories. Third, market liquidity and price efficiency exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship with the precision of the market professional’s information. Using Chinese A-share data, we find empirical evidence consistent with these predictions. We find that information spillovers may coexist with stronger incentives for information production, underscoring the need for tailored regulatory approaches.

我们构建了一个内部人员同时向市场专业人员和外部人员披露信息的多智能体模型，并描述了由此产生的线性均衡。我们的分析得出了三个主要结果。首先，内部人根据市场专业信息的质量，战略性地调整披露的精准度。第二，当市场专业人士消息灵通时，他们在信息泄露情况下的预期利润会超过未泄露情况下的预期利润，从而产生一种与以往理论不同的自我相对超额表现。第三，市场流动性和价格效率与市场专业人员信息的准确性呈倒u型关系。利用中国a股数据，我们发现了与这些预测一致的经验证据。我们发现，信息溢出可能与对信息生产的更强激励并存，这突显出有必要采取量身定制的监管方法。

引用次数: 0

How do free trade agreements affect firms’ export values? Insights into the mechanisms of trade costs and export stability 自由贸易协定如何影响企业的出口价值？贸易成本与出口稳定机制的洞察

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107487

Yunyan Wei , Wen Yue

This study examines the impact of free trade agreements (FTAs) on firms' export values, addressing a gap in the literature regarding how trade liberalization within formal institutions affects firm-level export values. Using data from the Chinese Customs database and the China Stock Market & Accounting Research database (2002–2015), we find, first, that FTAs significantly enhance firms' export values by lowering export costs and improving export stability. Second, these effects are particularly pronounced for small and medium-sized enterprises, younger firms, and firms facing greater financial constraints. Third, FTAs strengthen the export intensive margins and increase the export quantities. Overall, the findings offer valuable insights for promoting sustained export growth and provide policymakers with evidence to support the promotion of FTAs to enhance trade stability in the face of global challenges.

本研究考察了自由贸易协定（FTAs）对企业出口价值的影响，解决了文献中关于正式制度内贸易自由化如何影响企业层面出口价值的空白。利用中国海关数据库和中国股票市场与会计研究数据库（2002-2015）的数据，我们发现，首先，自由贸易协定通过降低出口成本和提高出口稳定性显著提高了企业的出口价值。其次，这些影响对中小企业、较年轻的企业和面临较大资金约束的企业尤为明显。第三，自由贸易协定增强了出口集约空间，增加了出口数量。总体而言，研究结果为促进持续出口增长提供了有价值的见解，并为政策制定者在面临全球挑战时支持促进自由贸易协定以增强贸易稳定提供了证据。

引用次数: 0

Cross-border data regulation and export quality: Evidence from China 跨境数据监管与出口质量：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107493

Yu Liu , Huan Yu

Existing literature predominantly focuses on traditional trade barriers, with relatively limited exploration of new types of obstacles in the digital era. Based on data from Chinese customs and the OECD spanning from 2014 to 2021, this study examines the impact of host countries' cross-border data regulations on China's export quality. The findings reveal that (1) host countries' cross-border data regulations significantly suppress China's export quality; (2) moderating effects indicate that improvements in technological innovation and human capital levels can mitigate the inhibitory effect of cross-border data regulations on export product quality; and (3) heterogeneity analysis shows that this negative impact is more pronounced in China's exports to developed economies and economies with higher levels of digital economy development, with a particularly significant impact on high-tech industries.

现有文献主要关注传统的贸易壁垒，对数字时代新型壁垒的探索相对有限。基于2014年至2021年中国海关和经合组织的数据，本研究考察了东道国跨境数据监管对中国出口质量的影响。研究发现：(1)东道国跨境数据管制显著抑制了中国出口质量；(2)调节效应表明，技术创新和人力资本水平的提高可以缓解跨境数据监管对出口产品质量的抑制作用；(3)异质性分析表明，中国对发达经济体和数字经济发展水平较高经济体的出口受到的负面影响更为明显，对高技术产业的影响尤为显著。

引用次数: 0

Bridging divides with data: Open government data and ESG rating divergence 用数据弥合分歧：政府公开数据与ESG评级分歧

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107491

Ximeng Liu, Fengzheng Wang, Youtao Xiang

Fully unleashing the informational value of public data to mitigate ESG rating divergence has become a crucial driver for motivating corporate engagement in sustainable development. Grounded in cognitive consistency theory, the study explores the effects and mechanisms through which open government data influences ESG divergence. The results demonstrate that open government data significantly reduces ESG rating divergence. Through mechanism analysis, we clarify that enhanced corporate information transparency and strengthened information credibility serve as fundamental channels through which open government data alleviates ESG rating divergence. Heterogeneity tests indicate the influence of open government data on ESG divergence is more pronounced under superior innovation conditions, advanced digital transformation, and smaller firm size. This research contributes to reducing ESG rating divergence, guiding corporate participation in ESG practices, and ultimately advancing sustainable development.

充分释放公共数据的信息价值，以缓解ESG评级差异，已成为激励企业参与可持续发展的关键动力。本研究以认知一致性理论为基础，探讨政府公开数据对ESG差异的影响及其机制。结果表明，政府数据开放显著降低了ESG评级差异。通过机制分析，明确提高企业信息透明度和增强信息可信度是政府数据公开缓解ESG评级分化的根本渠道。异质性检验表明，在创新条件优越、数字化转型超前、企业规模较小的情况下，政府开放数据对企业ESG差异的影响更为显著。本研究有助于减少ESG评级差异，指导企业参与ESG实践，最终促进可持续发展。

引用次数: 0

Asymmetric wage and employment dynamics in segmented labour markets 细分劳动力市场中不对称的工资和就业动态

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2026-01-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2026.107486

Srinivasan Murali , Abhishek Naresh , Jong Kook Shin , Chetan Subramanian

Using data from the Indian Annual Survey of Industries, we document that regular workers exhibit asymmetric wage and employment dynamics, while contract workers display asymmetric employment but symmetric wage dynamics. Specifically,

(i)

the nominal wage growth of regular workers is positively skewed, while that of contract workers is nearly symmetric, and

(i i)

employment growth for both groups is negatively skewed, with contract employment being less negatively skewed than regular. To account for these patterns, we extend a workhorse business cycle model with asymmetric wage adjustment costs for regular labour and symmetric wage adjustment costs for contract labour, along with symmetric labour adjustment costs for the regular sector. Our calibrated model shows that the presence of contract labour relaxes the constraint imposed by downward nominal wage rigidity, thereby reducing the optimal grease inflation towards zero.

使用印度年度产业调查的数据，我们证明了正规工表现出不对称的工资和就业动态，而合同工表现出不对称的就业但对称的工资动态。具体来说，(i)正规工的名义工资增长是正倾斜的，而合同工的名义工资增长几乎是对称的，（ii）这两个群体的就业增长都是负倾斜的，合同工的负倾斜程度低于正规工。为了解释这些模式，我们扩展了一个主力商业周期模型，其中包括常规劳动力的不对称工资调整成本和合同工的对称工资调整成本，以及常规部门的对称劳动力调整成本。我们的校准模型显示，合同工的存在放松了名义工资向下刚性所施加的约束，从而将最佳油脂通胀降至零。

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