Economic Modelling最新文献

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Assessment of the output floor in an agent-based credit network model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107101

Corentin Roussel

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the output floor, a key component of the Basel III finalization within an agent-based credit network model encompassing both corporate and interbank loan markets with heterogeneous firms and banks. The model is designed to replicate the evolution of key financial indicators in the Euro Area and is calibrated to empirical output floor settings. The findings confirm that the output floor is a crucial tool for enhancing banking regulation efficiency. It raises the average and reduces the dispersion of risk-weighted asset (RWA) density (i.e., the RWA-to-total assets ratio) across banks. Additionally, it improves alignment between the RWA densities of banks using the internal ratings-based and standardized approaches, thereby strengthening financial actors’ confidence in banking regulation. However, accommodative monetary policy fosters risk accumulation in the banking sector, undermining the output floor’s effectiveness, while tighter monetary policy has the opposite effect. Consequently, financial regulators must carefully coordinate policies to ensure banking stability.

引用次数: 0

Elderly labor supply, endogenous grandparental childcare, and fertility in an OLG model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107102

Mauro Maria Baldi, Raffaella Coppier, Elisabetta Michetti

This paper explores how grandparental childcare influences fertility decisions, elderly labor supply, and economic development. We model the time elderly individuals allocate between work and caring for grandchildren. In high-income countries, higher wages lead to increased investments in children’s education and human capital. Interestingly, the decision to work in old age does not depend on economic development but on wage dynamics. Specifically, when the effective wage grows rapidly, grandparents are more likely to work, even while caring for grandchildren. These findings highlight the importance of intergenerational time transfers in shaping economic outcomes. Future research could explore the long-term effects of aging populations on labor markets and family dynamics.

引用次数: 0

Shill Advertising

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107098

Jeong-Yoo Kim , Nathan Berg

Shill advertising occurs when sellers confidentially pay influencers to transmit favorable messages about a product. Here, we present a two-period model involving informed sellers, influencers, and second-period followers. Our model addresses why sellers of low-quality products engage more in shill advertising, despite the longstanding argument that high-quality sellers advertise more to encourage repeat purchases. We show that high-quality sellers have less incentive to engage in shill advertising, as doing so undermines the credibility of word-of-mouth communication from first-period influencers. This new insight into advertising behavior is primarily driven by what we call the “credibility effect”.

当卖方以保密方式向影响者支付费用，让其传播对产品有利的信息时，就会出现 "枕头广告"。在此，我们提出了一个涉及知情卖家、影响者和第二期追随者的两期模型。我们的模型探讨了为什么低质量产品的卖家会更多地参与甩卖广告，尽管长期以来一直有人认为高质量卖家会做更多广告以鼓励重复购买。我们的研究表明，高质量的卖家没有那么大的动力去做虚假广告，因为这样做会破坏第一期影响者口碑传播的可信度。对广告行为的这一新认识主要是由我们所说的 "信誉效应 "驱动的。

引用次数: 0

The power of the business group: Differences in firm hiring decisions under labor protection shock

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107108

Yiwen Shangguan , Qiyangfan Feng

Labor protection shocks significantly influence firms' employment decisions. Previous studies have highlighted varying labor employment behaviors in response to such shocks, but they have not focused on the distinctions between group-affiliated and unaffiliated firms. Using the Labor Contract Law (LCL) in China as an exogenous labor protection shock, we constructed a unique firm-group level database to investigate the differences in employment responses between these two types of firms. Our findings reveal that while the LCL reduced overall labor employment, its impact on group-affiliated firms was considerably less severe than on unaffiliated firms. This more measured adjustment in employment is mainly attributable to the reallocation of liquid assets among affiliated firms within business groups. By adopting such strategies, group-affiliated firms attained relatively better performance in total factor productivity and profitability compared to non-affiliated firms.

引用次数: 0

Spatial interactions and micro-enterprises’ uptake of COVID-19 financial aid: Evidence from a spatial hurdle probit model

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107087

Alessio Tomelleri , Anna Gloria Billé

This study examines the impact of spatial interactions on local government financial aid uptake among micro-enterprises (MEs) during the COVID-19 pandemic. While government support measures played a critical role in mitigating the crisis, the extent to which eligible firms applied for these benefits remains understudied. Using a representative survey of MEs in Trentino, Italy, linked to administrative data, we employ a spatial hurdle probit model to assess how information sharing among firms influences uptake decisions. Results show that MEs with similar levels of pre-pandemic economic performance in terms of added value tend to reciprocally influence each other in deciding to ask for public aid, with spatial interactions particularly significant in peripheral areas. Our findings highlight the importance of peer effects in shaping firms’ responses to public support measures, offering insights for policymakers aiming to improve the accessibility and effectiveness of financial aid programs.

引用次数: 0

Joint spousal ownership and corporate green innovation: Empirical evidence from family businesses listed on China's A-shares market

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107107

Liming Hong , Changhong Zhang , Sajid Anwar , Lijie Wang

Using data on Chinese family businesses spanning 2004 to 2022, this paper investigates the impact of joint spousal ownership on green innovation. The findings indicate that firms with joint spousal ownership exhibit significantly higher levels of green innovation compared to those without such ownership structures. This effect is primarily driven by two mechanisms: increased female executive representation and improved environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performance. Notably, joint spousal ownership has a more pronounced influence on green innovation than on traditional innovation, suggesting a stronger alignment with proactive environmental policies. Further analysis identifies moderating factors that enhance green innovation, including intergenerational succession planning, harmonious spousal relationships, long-term business goals, a focus on light industry, and limited involvement of other family members. Overall, this paper provides novel empirical evidence on how joint spousal ownership shapes strategic decision-making in family businesses, particularly in the context of sustainable development and global green economic trends.

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引用次数: 0

The momentum life cycle re-examined: Using incongruent value-growth to identify the momentum stage of stocks

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107109

Carlos Forner

The momentum life cycle (MLC) hypothesis aims to reconcile short-term momentum and long-term reversion observed in stock returns. While the MLC offers a valuable framework, it faces notable limitations: it fails to account for certain return patterns, and its ability to detect momentum stages may be mostly spurious. Using data from the five largest capital markets in the Eurozone from 1998 to 2014, along with cross-sectional regression and portfolio-based methodologies, this study re-examines the MLC. It introduces the incongruent value/growth (IVG) characteristic as an alternative to the commonly used trading volume to identify momentum stages within the MLC. The results show that using IVG significantly enhances the identification of early- and late-stage momentum stocks. Two key implications emerge: first, strategies that integrate momentum with IVG outperform those that combine momentum with trading volume; second, IVG helps address some of the MLC's key limitations, providing stronger empirical support for the hypothesis.

引用次数: 0

Microfinance duration and development: The case of three cities in India

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107105

Radhika Lahiri , Honghong Wei

This study examines the impact of microcredit duration on both pecuniary dimensions of welfare, such as saving and income, and non-pecuniary dimensions such as social capital among microfinance clients, issues that are underexplored in the literature. Using survey data from three cities in India, we employ a Two-Stage Least-Squares model to estimate financial impacts and an Ordered-Probit model to assess social capital outcomes. The findings reveal that longer microcredit duration significantly improves income and savings, with Pune, relative to Mumbai and Satara, showing the strongest effects. However, evidence for social capital formation is mixed, with negligible impacts in most cases and negative outcomes in some, highlighting limitations of joint-liability loan structures in fostering social networks. These results underscore the need for policies that go beyond financial inclusion, focusing on strengthening social capital through tailored programs that promote trust, cooperation, and community engagement, ultimately enhancing the broader developmental impact of microfinance.

引用次数: 0

Carbon tax in a duopoly with asymmetric spillovers and symmetric contributions

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107099

Chenyu Wang , Gamal Atallah

This study constructs a polluting duopoly model characterized by asymmetric environmental research and development (R&D) spillovers with symmetric abatement technology contributions. The study investigates, in the context of environmental regulation, the effects and implications of R&D efficiencies, R&D organizations, and information-sharing schemes on this featured economy's economic and environmental equilibriums. In particular, we (i) compare R&D and profit among the regimes of R&D noncooperation, R&D cooperation, and symmetric research joint venture cartelization; (ii) evaluate the regimes' R&D, emissions, profit, and welfare; and (iii) analyze how R&D efficiencies, spillover asymmetries, and spillover magnitude affect the regimes' economic–environmental performance. Furthermore, we validate the symmetric research joint venture cartelization regarding the symmetric contributions and examine the strategic interaction of R&D among regimes. Fundamentally, this study provides practical insights into the optimal environmental technology policy mix design under a unified analysis framework for government, enterprises, and consumers.

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引用次数: 0

Does a firm's intelligent technological transformation matter for its access to financial resources?

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling

Pub Date : 2025-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107100

Kuo Zhou , Zhi Qu , Yiman Guo , Runnian Hu

We investigate the impact of firms' intelligent technological transformation on their access to financial resources. The existing literature has mostly focused on the effect of external finance on firms' entrepreneurship, productivity, and artificial intelligence; however, research assessing how intelligent technological transformation affects their access to financial resources remains limited. Using China's Smart Manufacturing Pilot Program since 2015, we employ the difference-in-differences model to examine the beneficial effect of intelligent technological transformation on access to bank loans. The findings and results of the channel analysis reveal that firms with intelligent technological transformation have more reputation, strong competitive capabilities, and better access to bank loans.

引用次数: 0

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