{"title":"Sustainable aviation fuel pathways: Emissions, costs and uncertainty","authors":"Fan Yang , Yuan Yao","doi":"10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108124","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) show significant variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This study conducts a meta-analysis to examine uncertainty sources and their impacts on GHG and cost performances of various SAF pathways, using data harmonized for the U.S. context. Pathways include hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), Fischer–Tropsch (FT), bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), alcohol-to-jet process (ATJ), pyrolysis, and power-to-liquid (PtL) with direct air capture (DAC). Harmonization reduced uncertainties for all SAF pathways except PtL-DAC, where the H<sub>2</sub> source is the main uncertainty. FT-BECCS, HEFA-UCO and PtL-DAC pathways show negative GHG emissions (−9.8 to −122.4 g CO<sub>2eq</sub>/MJ), while pyrolysis and HEFA show lower costs (0.4–0.7 $/L) than fossil jet fuel (0.75 $/L). Background process data significantly influence GHG variability across all the pathways and mainly contribute to cost variability in HEFA (except HEFA-Tallow) and FT pathways, whereas foreground process data have larger or comparable impacts on cost variations in ATJ and PtL-DAC pathways. Eco-efficiency analysis reveals notable trade-offs among SAF pathways, with some HEFA pathways offering potential co-benefits.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21153,"journal":{"name":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","volume":"215 ","pages":"Article 108124"},"PeriodicalIF":11.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Resources Conservation and Recycling","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344925000035","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) and techno-economic analysis (TEA) show significant variations in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and costs of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This study conducts a meta-analysis to examine uncertainty sources and their impacts on GHG and cost performances of various SAF pathways, using data harmonized for the U.S. context. Pathways include hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), Fischer–Tropsch (FT), bioenergy combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), alcohol-to-jet process (ATJ), pyrolysis, and power-to-liquid (PtL) with direct air capture (DAC). Harmonization reduced uncertainties for all SAF pathways except PtL-DAC, where the H2 source is the main uncertainty. FT-BECCS, HEFA-UCO and PtL-DAC pathways show negative GHG emissions (−9.8 to −122.4 g CO2eq/MJ), while pyrolysis and HEFA show lower costs (0.4–0.7 $/L) than fossil jet fuel (0.75 $/L). Background process data significantly influence GHG variability across all the pathways and mainly contribute to cost variability in HEFA (except HEFA-Tallow) and FT pathways, whereas foreground process data have larger or comparable impacts on cost variations in ATJ and PtL-DAC pathways. Eco-efficiency analysis reveals notable trade-offs among SAF pathways, with some HEFA pathways offering potential co-benefits.
期刊介绍:
The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns.
Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.