Critical raw materials for green transition: Key parameters and feasibility index for sufficiency

IF 11.2 1区环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL Resources Conservation and Recycling Pub Date : 2025-03-13 DOI:10.1016/j.resconrec.2025.108197

P. Granvik , J. Hanski , S. Lähdesmäki , A. Jokilaakso , E. Huttunen-Saarivirta

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Abstract

The sufficiency of critical raw materials (CRMs) is crucial for the green transition, driven by increased demand in technologies, like EVs and renewable energy. A Scenario Forecast Tool (SFT) has been introduced to predict future CRM demand and supply. The high demand scenario revealed more than tenfold relative increase for lithium and cobalt from 2021 to 2050. For magnet materials, the most significant growth was forecasted for dysprosium, fourfold from 2021 to 2040. Using SFT we identified Key Parameters impacting CRM sufficiency and employed a Feasibility Index (FI) to develop realistic strategies for balancing CRM demand and supply. We demonstrated that with an FI75 value, the demand for most metals could be satisfied independently of used scenario. However, for certain metals, like lithium, FI75 did not meet the demand in high demand scenario. FI enables weighing the relative importance of KPs, a foundation for an activity roadmap for CRM sufficiency.

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来源期刊

Resources Conservation and Recycling 环境科学-工程：环境

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

6.10%

发文量

625

审稿时长

23 days

期刊介绍： The journal Resources, Conservation & Recycling welcomes contributions from research, which consider sustainable management and conservation of resources. The journal prioritizes understanding the transformation processes crucial for transitioning toward more sustainable production and consumption systems. It highlights technological, economic, institutional, and policy aspects related to specific resource management practices such as conservation, recycling, and resource substitution, as well as broader strategies like improving resource productivity and restructuring production and consumption patterns. Contributions may address regional, national, or international scales and can range from individual resources or technologies to entire sectors or systems. Authors are encouraged to explore scientific and methodological issues alongside practical, environmental, and economic implications. However, manuscripts focusing solely on laboratory experiments without discussing their broader implications will not be considered for publication in the journal.