Integrated conceptual framework for resilience and criticality assessments for raw material supply chains

Abstract

The global need for decarbonization strains critical raw material supply, reflected in increasing disruptions and threats. This demonstrates the need to enhance criticality towards integrated, time-dynamic assessments of criticality and resilience. This study reviews criticality, resilience, and raw material resilience literature. While we identify high conformity between vulnerability in criticality and performance degradation in resilience assessments, criticality additionally includes the likelihood of disruptions, and resilience emphasizes the required capacities to recover. The two concepts have not yet been integrated, wherefore we propose a time-dynamic indicator-based framework that considers three dimensions: the likelihood of disruption, the effect of disruption, and recovery from disruption. We illustrate the relevance by a Gallium case study from the perspective of the EU, faced with a hypothetical export ban. Our study contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of supply chain risks and mitigation opportunities and provides a foundation for the quantitative integration of criticality and resilience.