Cardiovascular disease risk prediction by Framingham risk score in women with polycystic ovary syndrome.

Abstract

Background: Despite the documented increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), no specific risk prediction tools are recommended for these patients. We aimed to assess the validity of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) as a predictor of CVD risk in PCOS patients.

Methods: In a community-based prospective study, 4,435 women from the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS) cohort were analyzed. Among them, 215 women aged 30 years or older were diagnosed with PCOS. A Cox proportional hazards model applied to assess the relationship between the FRS and CVD event. Model accuracy was evaluated using the C-statistic, while discrimination and calibration were assessed via the ROC curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC) statistics, and the Hosmer- Lemeshow test.

Results: The Cox proportional hazards (HRs) model revealed that the CVD risk increased by 38% for each one-unit increase in the FRS [HR: 1.38 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.66)] in PCOS patients. The FRS had a C-statistic of 0.765, which indicated a satisfactory fit for CVD prediction in this population. The AUC of the ROC curve was 0.82, which demonstrated a good discrimination of the FRS. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed that the predicted probabilities of CVD were consistent with the observed CVD rates (p = 0.217), indicating a good calibration.

Conclusions: This study revealed a significant increase in CVD risk among PCOS patients. The FRS effectively predicts a 38% increment in CVD risk for every one-unit increase in the FRS. Our study further validated the FRS as a predictor of CVD risk in these patients.