Safe consumption sites and crime: A staggered synthetic control evaluation of Toronto’s expanding safe consumption site network

Abstract

Objectives

This study analyzes the potential criminogenic effect of safe consumption sites (SCSs) in one of the most longstanding and expansive operational networks across Toronto, Canada. The analyses are positioned to test for changes in crime levels and both immediate and spatial effects for total, property, and violent crime events resulting from SCS implementation.

Methods

Staggered synthetic control methods were used to measure changes in crime levels pre- and post-SCS implementation. The method is flexible to variation in treatment locations and timing, allows for aggregate and phase-specific effects to be calculated, and is a robust quasi-experimental method for measuring change at microlevel units of analysis. Following the analysis measuring changes in crime levels, the spatial distribution of crime events was also assessed pre- and post-implementation to determine if the spatial patterning of crime events changed following SCS openings.

Results

The analyses indicated that crime did not significantly change following SCS implementation in the aggregate across the entire network. However, some phase-specific effects for individual SCSs demonstrated some notable changes in crime levels and directional heterogeneity, and the spatial distributions showed some meaningful changes in the spatial patterning of violent (further) and property (closer) crime events around SCSs after implementation.

Conclusion

The study adds important nuance to the discussion around harm reduction approaches like safe consumption sites and their relationship to crime. We found that crime levels were generally unchanged following SCS implementation, but that crime may be situationally impacted based on the crime type, location, and operational capacities of each unique SCS opened.