The development of escalation bias across the life span: A multi-level adaptive learning approach

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that the magnitude of escalation bias varies across ages. Explanations have attributed this age-escalation relationship to be the result of development changes in cognitive operations. We propose a multi-level adaptive learning approach, in which no cognitive operation changes over time, as an alternative to explain the age-escalation relationship. From this approach, escalation of commitment is understood as a manifestation of a decision strategy that coordinates multiple decisions to follow an escalation pattern (i.e., an escalation strategy). Through three computer simulations, we consistently found that simulated decision makers learned to prefer the escalation strategy to other strategies. In addition, using the size of a decision strategy to reflect metacognitive ability at different ages, the simulations successfully replicated the expected inverted U-shaped relationship between age and escalation of commitment. These results imply that escalation of commitment and its changes across the life span could be the natural results of learning and maturity/decline in metacognitive ability, suggesting that the changes of escalation over age are not necessarily due to changes in cognitive operations.