New Household Projections for Australia: Geographical Variations, Decomposition of Growth, and Implications for Policy

Abstract

In common with many other advanced economies, Australia is experiencing a crisis of worsening housing affordability. While some of the causes are longstanding, the crisis comes at a time of very high population growth driven by record high net immigration. This paper considers what the underlying demographic demand for housing, as expressed by the number of households, is likely to be over the next few years and then further ahead out to 2041. Particular attention is paid to the 2024–29 period because the Australian Government has announced a policy to build an additional 1.2 million new dwellings during this time. Using an updated version of the sequential propensity household projection model, household projections for 15 major regions of Australia were prepared for the period 2021–2041. Projected growth in the number of households was decomposed to reveal the contributions of various demographic and living arrangement drivers of growth. Alternative futures were considered using scenarios which take into account possible variations in both population and household variables. The projection results demonstrate the dominance of population growth in increasing household numbers, with additional growth contributed by population age structure change, while likely living arrangement trends will operate to dampen growth. Even considering alternative high growth futures, household growth over the 2024–29 period at the national scale is likely to be lower than 1.2 million. However, growth will vary considerably across the 15 regions, underscoring the need for housing supply to match geographical variations in household growth.