Multi-hazard probabilistic risk assessment and equitable multi-objective optimization of building retrofit strategies in hurricane-vulnerable communities

Abstract

Coastal communities are increasingly vulnerable to hurricanes, which cause billions of dollars in damage annually through wind, storm surge, and flooding. Mitigation efforts are essential to reduce these impacts but face significant challenges, including uncertainties in hazard prediction, damage estimation, and recovery costs. Resource constraints and the disproportionate burden borne by socioeconomically vulnerable groups further complicate retrofitting strategies. This study presents a probabilistic methodology to assess and mitigate hurricane risks by integrating hazard analysis, building fragility, and economic loss assessment. The methodology prioritizes retrofitting strategies using a risk-informed, equity-focused approach. Multi-objective optimization balances cost-effectiveness and risk reduction while promoting fair resource allocation among socioeconomic groups. The novelty of this study lies in its direct integration of equity as an objective in resource allocation through multi-objective optimization, its comprehensive consideration of multi-hazard risks, its inclusion of both direct and indirect losses in cost assessments, and its use of probabilistic hazard analysis to incorporate varying time horizons. A case study of the Galveston testbed demonstrates the methodology's potential to minimize damage and foster equitable resilience. Analysis of budget scenarios and trade-offs between cost and equity underscores the importance of comprehensive loss assessments and equity considerations in mitigation and resilience planning. Key findings highlight the varied effectiveness of retrofitting strategies across different budgets and time horizons, the necessity of addressing both direct and indirect losses, and the importance of multi-hazard considerations for accurate risk assessments. Multi-objective optimization underscores that equitable solutions are achievable even under constrained budgets. Beyond a certain point, achieving equity does not necessarily increase expected losses, demonstrating that more equitable solutions can be implemented without compromising overall cost-effectiveness.