Exploring the Dynamic Local and Tele-Coupling Coordination Mechanism of the Ecosystem Services Supply–Demand and Its Driving Forces: Taking China's Yangtze River Economic Belt as an Example

Abstract

Ecosystem services supply–demand (ESSD) is a key considering factor in regional ecological security. Based on the background, this study proposed a dynamic local and tele-coupling coordination degree (DLTCCD) model and further analyzed its influencing factors by combining it with a machine learning model. The main conclusions show that: (1) There existed a great imbalance in the ESSD of the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB) where the upstream area was the main supply area and the downstream area was the main demand area; (2) The DLTCCD in YREB as a whole has been increasing and the DLTCCD model can more objectively reflect the changes in coupling coordination degree (CCD); (3) In the future, the government should prioritize a dual focus on demographic trends and urbanization levels to foster the balance of ESSD in YREB. This study aims to identify the effectiveness of ecological protection projects in the YREB so as to provide a theoretical support for cross-regional ecological compensation and policy planning in this area.