The Damocles effect: judges may inflate the duration of suspended prison terms by over 50%

IF 2 2区社会学 Q2 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Journal of Experimental Criminology Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI:10.1007/s11292-025-09669-6

Andrzej Uhl

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Abstract

Objective

Legal scholars suspect that judges choose longer prison terms when they are going to suspend the sentence. This study examines this so-called sentence inflation in a controlled condition, holding case-related confounds constant.

Methods

I analyze the differences between suspended and unsuspended prison terms in the data from the Polish judicial exam. Each judge (N = 232) sentenced the same case based on a detailed court file. Judges had high stakes in the exam and spent over 6 h choosing and justifying the sentence.

Results

Many judges sentenced the offenders to prison. The suspended prison terms were 60 to 168% longer than unsuspended prison terms meted out in the identical case.

Conclusions

Judges display a tendency to inflate suspended prison terms, perhaps in order to appease the punitive public and strengthen individual deterrence. With high reoffending rates, this well-intentioned practice might backfire, leading to a surge in the prison population.

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达摩克利斯效应：法官可能会将缓刑期限延长50%以上

法律学者怀疑法官在缓期执行时选择了更长的刑期。本研究在控制条件下检验了这种所谓的句子膨胀，保持与病例相关的混淆不变。方法分析波兰司法考试数据中缓刑与非缓刑刑期的差异。每位法官（N = 232）根据详细的法庭档案对同一案件作出判决。法官们在考试中付出了很大的代价，花了6个多小时来选择和证明判决的正确性。结果许多法官判处罪犯入狱。在同一案件中，缓刑的刑期比未缓刑的刑期长60%至168%。法官表现出夸大缓刑刑期的倾向，也许是为了安抚惩罚性的公众并加强个人威慑。由于再犯罪率很高，这种善意的做法可能会适得其反，导致监狱人口激增。

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来源期刊

Journal of Experimental Criminology CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

6.70%

发文量

期刊介绍： The Journal of Experimental Criminology focuses on high quality experimental and quasi-experimental research in the advancement of criminological theory and/or the development of evidence based crime and justice policy. The journal is also committed to the advancement of the science of systematic reviews and experimental methods in criminology and criminal justice. The journal seeks empirical papers on experimental and quasi-experimental studies, systematic reviews on substantive criminological and criminal justice issues, and methodological papers on experimentation and systematic review. The journal encourages submissions from scholars in the broad array of scientific disciplines that are concerned with criminology as well as crime and justice problems.