Rethinking electrification strategy for China's passenger vehicle fleet decarbonization in resource-constrained environments

Abstract

Vehicle electrification is a key strategy for mitigating transportation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the growing demand for critical battery minerals poses a crucial threat to energy security. This study evaluates the trade-offs between electrification strategies and mineral supply constraints in decarbonizing China's passenger vehicle fleet from 2023 to 2040. The results reveal that, with limited battery materials, an orderly allocation of minerals across hybrid and electric powertrains yields greater GHG reductions than exclusive reliance on battery electric vehicles (BEVs). An optimal 2040 sales mix of 57 % plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and 43 % BEVs could reduce GHG emissions by ∼16 % compared to a BEV-exclusive scenario (56 % market share) under a 195-kiloton lithium supply constraint. Furthermore, adopting iron-based or high-nickel-based battery cathodes presents complementary strategies to alleviating supply shortages and lowering GHG emissions. Incorporating material constraints and powertrain diversity in policy decision-making is essential for a sustainable mobility future.