The role of low carbon fuels towards net-zero in integrated assessment models and energy system models: A critical review

Abstract

Low-carbon fuels (LCFs) are crucial for achieving net-zero CO₂ emission goals in integrated assessment model (IAM) and energy system model (ESM) scenarios. The absence of a standardized LCF classification system and inconsistencies in modeling approaches have obscured the integration of various LCFs within these models and makes a meaningful comparison of scenario outcomes difficult. This study addresses these issues by conducting a comprehensive critical review of the representation of LCFs in IAMs and ESMs, focusing on the fuel's role in shaping net-zero emission futures. We categorize LCFs into key groups, including electrification, hydrogen, synfuels, and biofuels. Our analysis reveals substantial gaps in technical modeling, lifecycle emissions data, incomplete modeling of environmental impacts beyond CO₂ emission, and discrepancies in LCF applications across sectors. To enhance the accuracy of future scenarios, we recommend adopting a unified LCF classification system, standardized input data, and more detailed sectoral applications. Additionally, we advocate for the integration of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) into IAMs and ESMs to improve the evaluation of LCFs' full environmental impacts, providing a more comprehensive foundation for net-zero emission pathways.