Regional employment implications of deploying CO2 transport and storage to decarbonise the UK's industry clusters

Abstract

The decarbonisation of UK industrial clusters via CCUS can support jobs and gross value-added (GVA). However, worker and skills shortages have been identified as a common challenge across UK clusters, and the net zero space, with average wage rates increasing as different sectors compete for a limited pool of labour. This paper employs multi-sector economy-wide CGE scenario simulations and linked regional mapping to examine how constrained labour market responses can affect potential outcomes of investing and deploying the CO₂ transport and storage element of CCUS networks in UK industry clusters. The analysis concentrates on the location and nature of labour demand and wage cost-driven jobs displacement. Findings suggest transitory annual peaks of over 11,000 jobs in the construction sector set against job displacement peaks of around 5200 concentrated in sectors such as retail, services and hospitality. Regional mapping suggests that southern regions may be particularly affected by displacement effects, given the concentration of service sectors set against less direct benefit from the introduction of CO₂ transport and storage (T&S) sector activity. Overall, the key finding is that net economy-wide gains are constrained by congestion of investment activity even with the relatively small scale of investment in T&S capacity and associated competition for resources.