Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts

IF 7.1 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Ecological Monographs Pub Date : 2022-08-12 DOI:10.1002/ecm.1550
Jacob P. Youngblood, Arianne J. Cease, Stav Talal, Fernando Copa, Hector E. Medina, Julio E. Rojas, Eduardo V. Trumper, Michael J. Angilletta Jr., Jon F. Harrison
{"title":"Climate change expected to improve digestive rate and trigger range expansion in outbreaking locusts","authors":"Jacob P. Youngblood,&nbsp;Arianne J. Cease,&nbsp;Stav Talal,&nbsp;Fernando Copa,&nbsp;Hector E. Medina,&nbsp;Julio E. Rojas,&nbsp;Eduardo V. Trumper,&nbsp;Michael J. Angilletta Jr.,&nbsp;Jon F. Harrison","doi":"10.1002/ecm.1550","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species' distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we explored how incorporating mechanisms altered the projected impacts of climate change for an agricultural pest, the South American locust (<i>Schistocerca cancellata</i>). Because locusts are generalist herbivores surrounded by food, their population growth may be limited by thermal effects on digestion more than food availability. To incorporate this mechanism into a distribution model, we measured the thermal effects on the consumption and defecation of field-captured locusts and used these data to model energy gain in current and future climates. We then created hybrid models by using outputs of the mechanistic model as predictor variables in correlative models, estimating the potential distribution of gregarious outbreaking locusts based on multiple predictor sets, modeling algorithms, and climate scenarios. Based on the mechanistic model, locusts can assimilate relatively high amounts of energy throughout temperate and tropical South America; however, correlative and hybrid modeling revealed that most tropical areas are unsuitable for locusts. When estimating current distributions, the top-ranked model was always the one fit with mechanistic predictors (i.e., the hybrid model). When projected to future climates, top-ranked hybrid models projected range expansions that were 23%–30% points smaller than those projected by correlative models. Therefore, a combination of the correlative and mechanistic approaches bracketed the potential outcomes of climate change and enhanced confidence where model projections agreed. Because all models projected a poleward range expansion under climate change, agriculturists should consider enhanced monitoring and the management of locusts near the southern margin of the range.</p>","PeriodicalId":11505,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Monographs","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.1000,"publicationDate":"2022-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"4","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Monographs","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecm.1550","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4

Abstract

Global climate change will probably exacerbate crop losses from insect pests, reducing agricultural production, and threatening food security. To predict where crop losses will occur, scientists have mainly used correlative models of species' distributions, but such models are unreliable when extrapolated to future environments. To minimize extrapolation, we developed mechanistic and hybrid models that explicitly capture range-limiting processes, and we explored how incorporating mechanisms altered the projected impacts of climate change for an agricultural pest, the South American locust (Schistocerca cancellata). Because locusts are generalist herbivores surrounded by food, their population growth may be limited by thermal effects on digestion more than food availability. To incorporate this mechanism into a distribution model, we measured the thermal effects on the consumption and defecation of field-captured locusts and used these data to model energy gain in current and future climates. We then created hybrid models by using outputs of the mechanistic model as predictor variables in correlative models, estimating the potential distribution of gregarious outbreaking locusts based on multiple predictor sets, modeling algorithms, and climate scenarios. Based on the mechanistic model, locusts can assimilate relatively high amounts of energy throughout temperate and tropical South America; however, correlative and hybrid modeling revealed that most tropical areas are unsuitable for locusts. When estimating current distributions, the top-ranked model was always the one fit with mechanistic predictors (i.e., the hybrid model). When projected to future climates, top-ranked hybrid models projected range expansions that were 23%–30% points smaller than those projected by correlative models. Therefore, a combination of the correlative and mechanistic approaches bracketed the potential outcomes of climate change and enhanced confidence where model projections agreed. Because all models projected a poleward range expansion under climate change, agriculturists should consider enhanced monitoring and the management of locusts near the southern margin of the range.

查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
气候变化预计将提高蝗虫的消化率并引发蝗虫活动范围的扩大
全球气候变化可能会加剧虫害造成的作物损失,减少农业生产,威胁粮食安全。为了预测作物损失的发生地点,科学家们主要使用物种分布的相关模型,但是当外推到未来的环境时,这些模型是不可靠的。为了最大限度地减少外推,我们开发了明确捕获范围限制过程的机械和混合模型,并探索了结合机制如何改变气候变化对农业害虫南美蝗虫(Schistocerca cancellata)的预测影响。由于蝗虫是被食物包围的多面手食草动物,它们的数量增长可能受到消化的热效应而不是食物供应的限制。为了将这一机制整合到分布模型中,我们测量了野外捕获的蝗虫对消耗和排便的热效应,并使用这些数据来模拟当前和未来气候下的能量增益。然后,我们将机制模型的输出作为相关模型的预测变量,创建混合模型,基于多个预测集、建模算法和气候情景估计群居蝗灾的潜在分布。根据机制模型,蝗虫可以在整个温带和热带南美洲吸收相对大量的能量;然而,相关模型和混合模型显示,大多数热带地区不适合蝗虫。在估计当前分布时,排名靠前的模型总是与机械预测因子相匹配的模型(即混合模型)。当对未来气候进行预测时,排名靠前的混合模型预测的范围扩展比相关模型预测的范围扩展小23%-30%。因此,相关方法和机制方法的结合涵盖了气候变化的潜在结果,并在模式预估一致的地方提高了可信度。由于所有模型都预测在气候变化的影响下,蝗虫的活动范围会向极地扩展,因此农业学家应该考虑加强对活动范围南缘附近的蝗虫的监测和管理。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
求助全文
约1分钟内获得全文 去求助
来源期刊
Ecological Monographs
Ecological Monographs 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
12.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: The vision for Ecological Monographs is that it should be the place for publishing integrative, synthetic papers that elaborate new directions for the field of ecology. Original Research Papers published in Ecological Monographs will continue to document complex observational, experimental, or theoretical studies that by their very integrated nature defy dissolution into shorter publications focused on a single topic or message. Reviews will be comprehensive and synthetic papers that establish new benchmarks in the field, define directions for future research, contribute to fundamental understanding of ecological principles, and derive principles for ecological management in its broadest sense (including, but not limited to: conservation, mitigation, restoration, and pro-active protection of the environment). Reviews should reflect the full development of a topic and encompass relevant natural history, observational and experimental data, analyses, models, and theory. Reviews published in Ecological Monographs should further blur the boundaries between “basic” and “applied” ecology. Concepts and Synthesis papers will conceptually advance the field of ecology. These papers are expected to go well beyond works being reviewed and include discussion of new directions, new syntheses, and resolutions of old questions. In this world of rapid scientific advancement and never-ending environmental change, there needs to be room for the thoughtful integration of scientific ideas, data, and concepts that feeds the mind and guides the development of the maturing science of ecology. Ecological Monographs provides that room, with an expansive view to a sustainable future.
期刊最新文献
Cover Image Issue Information Climate and management changes over 40 years drove more stress-tolerant and less ruderal weed communities in vineyards The primacy of density-mediated indirect effects in a community of wolves, elk, and aspen Understanding the chemodiversity of plants: Quantification, variation and ecological function
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1