Ukraine’s Implications for Indo-Pacific Alignment

Abstract

Russia’s actions in Ukraine since February 2022 have sent shockwaves globally. Attention has understandably focused on the change in European attitudes toward security threats posed by Moscow, with the United States leading coalition-building responses including naming and shaming, imposing sanctions, and supplying military assistance to Ukraine. The demonstrative effect of the strength, unity and speed of the Western response must ring alarm bells for Beijing, but it also leads to interesting questions about each state’s choice of alignment globally. In Europe, most states have chosen shared common security interests with one side of a great-power rivalry (in this case, with the US over Russia and China). Undeniably, the assistance of key US partners in the Indo-Pacific, such as Australia and Japan, in imposing sanctions on Russia and providing military support to Ukraine, shows that US allies and partners around the world are remarkably united. However, the broader response of Indo-Pacific powers to Russia has been divided, and runs the gamut between strong opposition, support, and ambivalence. While the United States has received quick and robust support from many close allies in the region, it has had difficulties in gathering full-fledged support from some of its partners such as India, Singapore and Thailand. The world is analyzing developments in Ukraine and gleaning lessons that can be applied beyond Europe. Arguably, the likelihood of a new Cold War with the