A Military Drawdown in Germany? US Force Posture in Europe from Trump to Biden

Abstract

The Biden administration has promised to revitalize a transatlantic alliance that has experienced much strain during Donald Trump’s presidency. Trump’s focus on strategic competition with China, equivocal attitude toward Russia, repeated criticisms of NATO and Germany, and insistence that Europeans pay for their own defense have raised questions about the future of US defense strategy in Europe. Nevertheless, his administration in fact committed additional money and troops to deterring Russia from threatening US allies. Amid such confusing signals, one of Trump’s last acts that roiled transatlantic relations was to announce in July 2020 a plan to reduce military personnel stationed in Germany from about 34,500 to 25,000, return some portion of these troops to the United States, regroup someair and commandassets in Italy andBelgium, and reinforce theUSmilitary’s rotational presence in Poland and the Black Sea region. The announcement of these measures stunned European allies, who had not been previously consulted. The Pentagon’s 2020 plan embodied the main themes and contradictions that characterized Trump’s defense strategy in Europe: its net reduction of US forces reflected Europe’s downgraded strategic importance to Washington, partly explained by the need to prioritize Asia and partly by the belief that Europeans must be responsible for their own defense; it punished Germany; and it sought