Is the Chinese Communist Party Ready for the Future?

Abstract

As the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) prepares to commemorate on July 1 the 100th anniversary of its founding in 1921, it continues to confound policymakers and scholars with its expanding illiberalism amid persistent resilience, defying expectations of eventual moderation and inevitable collapse. From the vantage point of 2021, the CCP has demonstrated that it can adapt to both new and legacy challenges or, at a minimum, find creative ways to kick the can down the road. Not only is the Party resilient, it is also successful: today’s Communist Party controls more wealth, commands a more powerful military force, and can exert its influence over farther reaches of the globe than at any other point in its history. The CCP’s repeated ability to defy the odds—from war to global recession— has given rise to triumphalist narratives at home that highlight past successes as proof of a political model superior to electoral democracies. A regime that can oversee decades of breakneck economic growth deserves praise, careful study, and perhaps replication, with Xi Jinping highlighting the “the China solution” (中国方案) in a 2016 speech commemorating the CCP’s 95th anniversary. Indeed, events of the past 12 months, due to China’s rapid virus control and economic rebound, have supercharged this domestic sense of validation among both the Party and the people.