Russia in the Era of Great Power Competition

Abstract

Russia has come to occupy an anomalous position in Western strategic thought. While former US president Barack Obama dismissed Russia as a “regional power” following its 2014 occupation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine, both the Trump and Biden administrations have identified Russia as one of the United States’ principal rivals in an era defined by strategic competition among great powers. To a significant degree, though, the United States continues to think about Russia as more of a disruptor than a true great power rival. Though widespread, that view misreads both the nature and the durability of Russian power and underestimates the extent to which Russia remains a potent competitor whose preferences Western leaders will have to take into account. Even as Russia has invaded its neighbors, deployed forces to Syria, positioned itself as a key partner for regimes worldwide concerned about Western-backed democracy promotion, and shaken political systems throughout the West itself, the perception of Russia as little more than a nuisance, a terminally declining state that should dispense with its great power ambitions and allow the United States to focus on the "pacing threat" of China, persists. This distinction is captured by the Biden administration’s Interim National Security Strategic Guidance, which differentiates between “an increasingly assertive China and [a] destabilizing Russia” that “remains determined to... play a disruptive role on the world stage.” The US National Intelligence Council’s 2021 Global Trends report likewise notes that, while Russia is “likely to remain a disruptive