Optimal Maintenance Policy for Corroded Oil and Gas Pipelines using Markov Decision Processes

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to determine optimal maintenance policies for degraded oil and gas pipelines due to internal pitting corrosion. This approach builds a bridge between Markov process-based corrosion rate models and Markov decision processes (MDP). This bridging allows for the consideration of both short-term and long-term costs for optimal pipeline maintenance operations. To implement MDP, probability transition matrices are estimated to move from one degradation state to the next in the pipeline degradation Markov processes. A case study is also implemented with four pipeline failure modes (i.e., safe, small leak, large leak, and rupture). And four maintenance actions (i.e. do nothing, adding corrosion inhibitors, pigging, and replacement) are considered by assuming perfect pipeline inspections. Monte Carlo simulation is performed on 10,000 initial pits using the selected corrosion models and assumed maintenance and failure costs to determine an optimal maintenance policy.