Governing the Final Frontier: Risk Reduction in Outer Space

Abstract

Space capabilities are critical to the global economy, military power, and daily life. For example, the United States’ Global Positioning System enables everything from withdrawing cash from ATM machines to allowing the US military to engage in long-range precision strikes. Satellites facilitate long-distance communications, tracking and predicting weather patterns, verifying compliance with arms control treaties, detecting nuclear launches, and supplying critical Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities for militaries to carry out targeting. Yet with the rise of both state and private space actors, the space domain is becoming increasingly crowded and the risk of accidental collisions is increasing. At the same time, several states are pursuing counterspace weapons—raising the risks of creating highly destructive space debris and increasing the odds of accidental escalation and armed conflict in space and on Earth. Given these risks, many policymakers and analysts are calling for risk reduction and strategic stability measures in outer space. Such measures could reduce the likelihood of inadvertent escalation, limit tensions, and decrease the possibility of destructive violence in the space domain or the creation of debris that may make outer space inaccessible to human activities. While no singular agreement will solve all obstacles, risk reduction measures can enhance American security by injecting a degree of stability into the space domain and promoting norms of responsible behavior in outer space.