The impact of service expansion on modal shift from private car to public transport. A quantitative analysis in the Bonn/Rhein-Sieg area, Germany

IF 2.7 Q1 GEOGRAPHY Journal of Urban Mobility Pub Date : 2023-09-30 DOI:10.1016/j.urbmob.2023.100064
Andreas Hahn , Christina Pakusch , Gunnar Stevens
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Abstract

Vehicle emissions have been identified as a cause of air pollution and one of the major reasons why air quality in many large German cities such as Berlin, Bonn, Hamburg, Cologne or Munich does not meet EU-wide limits. As a result, in the recent past, judicial driving bans on diesel vehicles have been imposed in many places since those vehicles emit critical pollutant groups. For the increasing urban population, the challenge is whether and how a change of the modal split in favor of the more environmentally and climate-friendly public transport can be achieved.

This paper presents the case of the Federal City of Bonn, one of five model cities sponsored by the German federal government that are testing measures to reduce traffic-related pollutant emissions by expanding the range of public transport services on offer. We present the results of a quantitative survey (N = 14,296) performed in the Bonn/Rhein-Sieg area and the neighboring municipalities as well as the ensuing logistic regressions confirming that a change in individual mobility behavior in favor of public transport is possible through expanding services. Our results show that individual traffic could be reduced, especially on the city's main traffic axes. To sustainably improve air quality, such services must be made permanently available.

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服务扩展对私家车向公共交通模式转变的影响。德国波恩/莱茵-锡格地区的定量分析
车辆排放已被确定为空气污染的原因,也是柏林、波恩、汉堡、科隆或慕尼黑等许多德国大城市空气质量未达到欧盟范围限制的主要原因之一。因此,在最近的一段时间里,许多地方都对柴油车实施了司法驾驶禁令,因为这些车辆会排放关键污染物。对于不断增加的城市人口来说,挑战在于是否以及如何改变交通方式,以支持更环保、更气候友好的公共交通。本文以波恩联邦市为例,该市是德国联邦政府赞助的五个示范城市之一,正在测试通过扩大公共交通服务范围来减少交通相关污染物排放的措施。我们介绍了在波恩/莱茵-西格地区和邻近城市进行的定量调查(N=14296)的结果,以及随后的逻辑回归,证实了通过扩大服务,有利于公共交通的个人流动行为的改变是可能的。我们的研究结果表明,个人交通可以减少,尤其是在城市的主要交通轴线上。为了可持续地改善空气质量,必须永久提供此类服务。
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