US-China Relations: An Integrated Model of Analysis and Prediction

Abstract

This study is to suggest an integrated approach of three levels of ‘structure,’ ‘process,’ and ‘actor’ to analyze and predict US-China relations. At the level of structure, this study finds that a power transition is going on, that a power competition between ‘rebalancing’ and ‘counterbalancing’ is developing, and that conflicting strategic goals are sought for. US-China relations would develop into a competition/conflict-dominant mode in the long-term. But this competition/ conflict-dominant relations would be mitigated by resuming diplomacy and increasing trade between two countries. Finally, the competition/conflict-dominant relations would be amplified by the perceptions of each other by the leadership as the only ‘revisionist challenging’ state and a containing state of rising China.