Importance of Having Allies with Reconnaissance Satellites Capabilities for Successful Extended Deterrence

young sang Lee, W. Kim
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Abstract

A revolution in military affairs(RMA) is expected to have a significant impact on militarized interstate disputes. Recent researches show that ballistic missiles, unmanned attack vehicles, and drones affect many aspects of militarized disputes. However, there is few research on the effect of the RMA on extended deterrence. In this study we analyze the effect of military surveillance technology on extended deterrence. In particular, we focus on the presence or absence of allies with reconnaissance satellites because reconnaissance satellite is a technology that can effectively alleviate uncertainty of information compared to other reconnaissance assets. Considering Fearon’s(1995) argument that wars occur because of uncertainty of information and commitment problem, reconnaissance satellites may be able to alleviate these problems with satellites characteristics such as high durability, stability, and few international legal restriction. Results of this study demonstrate that states having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities are less likely to be targeted in large scale militarized disputes with 100 or more casualties than states without having allies with reconnaissance satellites capabilities.
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拥有侦察卫星能力的盟友对成功扩展威慑的重要性
军事革命(RMA)有望对军事化的国家间争端产生重大影响。最近的研究表明,弹道导弹、无人攻击机和无人机影响着军事争端的许多方面。然而,关于军事革命对延伸威慑影响的研究却很少。在本研究中,我们分析了军事监视技术对扩展威慑的影响。我们特别关注盟国是否拥有侦察卫星,因为与其他侦察资产相比,侦察卫星是一种可以有效减轻信息不确定性的技术。考虑到Fearon(1995)的观点,战争的发生是因为信息的不确定性和承诺问题,侦察卫星可能能够缓解这些问题,卫星的特点,如高耐用性,稳定性和很少的国际法律限制。本研究的结果表明,与没有侦察卫星能力的盟国相比,拥有侦察卫星能力的盟国不太可能成为造成100人或更多伤亡的大规模军事化争端的目标。
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